Off To The Races

After nearly a month of assuring and reassuring his electorate, Premier Blaine Higgs has called for an election for September 14th. Despite going back on his word, it may prove to be a smart move on the part of the former Irving man. Should the New Brunswick electorate reflect poll findings south of the border; left leaning votes are less likely to risk the transmission of Covid 19 by going out to vote than their right leaning counterparts.

It has been a very difficult four years for the embattled premier. He narrowly held on to his minority government by working in lockstep with the far-right fringe People’s Party of New Brunswick. Higgs has had difficulty passing legislation through the legislature and has seen several big ticket bills defeated and drew the ire of large swaths of the populace.

Higgs’ Progressive Conservatives raised much controversy when they announced a decision to close several emergency rooms in rural areas between certain times in a cost saving effort. The attempted cuts were seen by many as a partisan decision as Liberal ridings were targeted. In February, just a month before the global outbreak of Covid 19, Higgs back out at the last moment due to “good conscience”.

In June, Higgs announced that his party would no longer be moving forward with their controversial power grab with Bill 49. The bill would have increased the power of government and police during the Covid crisis despite the relative low numbers of the virus in the province and the seeming lack of necessity for such powers.

Almost immediately after the government ceased their power grab, the government was defeated on another highly controversial bill which would have seen mandatory vaccinations.  Liberals and Progressive Conservatives enjoyed a free vote and saw members from both parties vote in favour of and against Bill 11. The Bill was the brainchild of former New Democrat leader and current PC Minister of Education Dominic Cardy.

Despite all of Higgs’ many failings and controversies; his party remains in the best standing among the four parties represented in the legislature. Kevin Vickers, leader of the Liberals has had difficulty in gaining popularity and improving the party standing left behind by Brian Gallant. Kris Austin and the PANB has not been able to gain much traction beyond his fringe supporter base. David Coon’s Green Party popularity is in doubt over repeated abstentions. The New Democrats are certainly in the worst shape of any New Brunswick party with no representation in the legislature.

Saint John East 2018

Saint John East was an exciting place in the last electoral year. Gary Keating and the Liberal Party squeaked out a victory and a steal from the Progressive Conservatives by only 9 votes! Then, unexpectedly, almost immediately after winning the tightest race in the province, Keating resigned. A by-election was called and the PCs took the riding back.

PC incumbent Glen Savoie is reoffering. He won with a confident majority in the by-election. Savoie was part of the Alward government but was not given a cabinet post. He does currently serve as a critic and deputy house leader. His most notable actions in office are asking cabinet ministers to resign and his outrage over the government’s $600 social media video touting the province’s achievements; which he saw as Liberal propaganda despite the ads making no mention of the Liberals.

Liberals are running Clare Manzer, an administrative assistant and lifelong volunteer.

New Democrats are offering Alex White, a university graduate with a political science degree who has worked several service level jobs.

Greens bring forth Lynaya Astephen, a university graduate with a degree in travel and tourism. She runs on a government transparency platform.

People’s Alliance have an interesting, if not problematic, candidate. Pastor and failed mayoral candidate Matthew Thompson who is now more a businessman than minister. You can still find his mayoral platform online in which he made big promises to improve infrastructure, restore city services, grow business, all this and more without increasing taxes. Many of the promises made were outside the purview of a mayor’s power.

Sadly, Saint John East is the antithesis of Saint John Harbour. Where the SJH is a powerful swing riding which forces all parties to put forward the best and brightest; SJE is seen as a Tory safeguard in which nobody puts any strong candidates- even the Tories themselves.

Saint John Harbour 2018

It may be THE swing riding of the province. It has been red, blue, and even orange. It was Elizabeth Weir’s riding when she served as NDP leader. In the past two elections, the riding was won by fewer than 100 votes. Even the NDP ran tight races, coming in as a very close third to either the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives. It’s anyone’s race to win. As such, all the parties are putting in a strong effort in this always-exciting riding.

The Liberals are running superstar city councilor Gerry Lowe. Gerry is incredibly popular in the city and is notable for playing a part in the city’s growth and revitalization. In recent years, Lowe has played an integral role in both destroying derelict buildings and building new assets to the city’s infrastructure; from the Saint John Field House, to splash pads, and barge terminals.

The New Democrats are running their leader, Jennifer McKenzie. McKenzie is running her party with a tight, concise, and rather brilliant platform (quite possibly the most brilliant platform the party has presented in twenty years). McKenzie’s plan for a $15 minimum wage would reinvigorate Saint John’s failing economy by infusing the consumer with stronger buying power. Add to that the NDP’s plan to institute an affordable daycare plan that would be based in the province’s schools (saving tens of thousands on infrastructure per annum), and working parents would also be strengthened without great cost to the province. Surely McKenzie will have the support of New Democrats right across the province in this crucial swing riding.

The PCs offered up retired teacher Barry Ogden. Ogden is known widely for his Marco Polo projects as well as his marigolds on Main Street project. Ogden has also worked on revitalization projects to save historical properties including Loyalist House and the Canada Games Stadium. Barry Ogden may find that his biggest challenge comes from the reputation he has built for himself; saving the city as opposed to those who live in it. In a riding where poverty is at critical levels, Ogden has chosen to conserve history rather than help people. Still, he has proven himself to have determination and drive. Should he refocus his efforts on people, he may become a strong champion for the people of Saint John Harbour.

Wayne Dryer is again the Green candidate. This is his third time running for Saint John Harbour, though the first time he ran was as a New Democrat. Wayne has been a part of the community for decades, having worked for the community with his church, as an employer, as social activist, and an advocate of environmental causes. Wayne is, just as the first three, a superstar candidate.

The most direct threat to Mr. Ogden’s political capital is Margot Brideau of the People’s Alliance. Mrs. Brideau’s private sector experience is in redevelopment of the city’s downtown corridor. As one half of Historica Developments, Brideau is self tasked with the revitalization of historical properties. However, this is where the similarities with Ogden end. Whereas Ogden seeks to save the historical components of the city for posterity, Brideau and her husband do it for personal financial gain. Brideau, who is either a native of Quispamsis or Halifax based on which autobiography you read, has revamped uptown warehouses into upscale lofts that many may find unaffordable in the poverty stricken city. She still has not been given a profile on the People’s Alliance official website.

Campbellton-Dalhousie

One of only two vacant seats, Cambellton-Dalhousie is a left leaning riding but by no means a guaranteed seat for the Gallant Liberals. Though the former seat holder, Donald Arseneault, won the riding by nearly 3000 votes in 2014; the nature of his departure may negatively affect the Liberal Party in 2018.

Campbellton-Dalhousie is a newer riding made up of two former ridings which did swing from red to blue and back to red again. That may give some hope to Tory voters in the riding who saw the 2014 landslide with great dismay. The Liberal image may also be tarnished after Donald Arseneault accepted a position with Canada’s Building Trade Unions while attempting to hold his position as an MLA. The integrity commissioner found Arseneault innocent and verified that no laws were broken, but the appearance of a conflict of interest is undeniable. Gallant gave Arseneault an ultimatum to keep the CBTU post or keep his seat in the legislature; Arseneault chose the CBTU.

Replacing Donald Arseneault on the Liberal ticket is former Liberal Member of Parliament, Guy Arseneault. Guy has nine years experience in Ottawa having served from 1988 to 1997. After retiring from federal politics, Guy was active in education and with the teachers’ union. Always championing better standards for education in New Brunswick, Guy may be able to bring luster back to the Liberal name after Donald’s departure.

The Progressive Conservatives offer no slouch in their candidate Diane Cyr. Cyr has served on Campbellton’s city council for ten years. She’s an avid volunteer and festival coordinator. Realistically, in this riding, if anybody has a chance to beat the Liberals, it is Diane Cyr and the Progressive Conservatives.

The Green Party has selected an environmental faithful; Annie Theriault. A vocal opponent of New Brunswick’s failing environmental policies on social media, Theriault makes clear her disapproval of glyphosate herbicides, deforestation, and toxic dumping in her community of River Charlo. Her campaign has been off to a slow start, but she is surrounded by a passionate group of young environmentalists.

Therese Tremblay will represent the New Democrats in Cambellton-Dalhousie. Therese is a retired union and labour activist. She has worked with the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) and the Restigouche District Labour Council (RDLC).

Peoples Alliance have offered former small business owner and retiree Robert Boudreau. Boudreau has travelled across Canada and lived in several Canadian cities before returning home to New Brunswick. PANB didn’t offer in this riding in 2014; their presence this year may hurt Diane Cyr’s chances of building stronger numbers for the PC.

Too Close to Call in Moncton South

The very definition of a back and forth riding; Moncton South is a fickle jurisdiction. The riding itself has changed and been altered several times in recent memory. Regardless of geography, the riding now known as Moncton South has gone from blue to red, back to blue, and returned to red with each election year.

Finance Minister Cathy Rogers is the current MLA for Moncton South. Typically, New Brunswick electors favour sitting cabinet members and the finance portfolio is an especially hot one. Rogers has the recent announcement of a budget surplus also working in her favour.

Rogers’ primary opponent is Moira Murphy of the Progressive Conservatives. Murphy is a family law layer and marathon runner, but will she place first in her race with Rogers? Despite her legal background, Murphy doesn’t have the stockpile of volunteer credits that most politicians collect prior to running for office.

In Moncton South the People’s Alliance are fighting for the New Democrat’s piece of the leftist pie. PANB candidate Marilyn Riel is the Moncton Chapter President of the New Brunswick Common Front for Social Justice. Riel and New Democrat Amy Johnson are both pushing for better living conditions, poverty reduction, and an increase to the minimum wage. This raises an interesting conundrum as the PANB, which normally swings to the right, may also be swiping votes from the left.

The Green Party is running a younger candidate against the establishment. Laura Sanderson appears to have thrown her hat into the ring but has at this point made very little effort in campaigning. Sanderson may just be filling a position for the party but there is still time for her to put in a stronger effort.

Moncton South is one of New Brunswick’s only all-female-candidate ridings.

Hampton or Higgins’ Haven

The riding of Hampton as it exists today is the result of Tory design by the Alward government in 2013. It was designed, or gerrymandered, to be a Tory stronghold for the foreseeable future. Now, in 2018, Hampton is a safe haven for Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs who is trailing in the polls behind Brian Gallant. Higgs spent a portion of today in Hampton with MLA Gary Crossman in a possible attempt to feed off Crossman’s popularity.

The 2014 race was an exciting one for Hampton. Former PC MLA Bev Harrison challenged incumbent PC MLA Gary Crossman as a New Democrat. This year will not be nearly as exciting, but should be a two horse race between Liberal and Progressive Conservative. Crossman is reoffering as expected and will face off with local lawyer Carley Parish. Parish and Crossman both have sterling records of volunteer efforts and serving the community. Crossman served on town council and Parish served on the town Chamber of Commerce. Both are large figures in the community, though Crossman does enjoy the gerrymander advantage.

The Greens are giving John Sabine a second chance. A retired Saint John Police Officer, Sabine also has a record of volunteer work and community experience. However, the Green Party with Sabine came in a distant fourth in 2014. Sabine has promised to donate half of his legislative income to charity if elected.

Rounding out the ticket are Layton Peck and Dana Hansen of the NDP and People’s Alliance respectively. The NDP did come in second in 2014 but that was largely due to the fact they ran a former Tory; Bev Harrison. In 2014 the PANB crawled across the finish line with a dismal fifth place performance and at this juncture there is no reason to expect any more of the PANB in Hampton this go around.

Albert 2018

A Progressive Conservative stronghold for nearly twenty years, Albert is unlikely to turn colour this year. When Wayne Steeves won the seat for the PC Party back in 1999 he did so with 1,500 votes to spare. Steeves held the seat until the 2014 election; when he stepped aside for fellow Tory Brian Keirstead to take the reins. Keirstead won the riding as handily as Steeves had before him. However, Keirstead will not be the candidate representing the Progressive Conservatives on the ballot.

The PC riding association delivered a surprise upset when they chose to nominate Mike Holland rather than their own incumbent. Holland is a party insider and gave no reasons for his challenge other than a compulsion to run.

Surprisingly, rather than offering a lame duck candidate, the Liberals put forth a serious contender in Catherine Black. Black holds degrees in Economics, Commerce, and Business Administration. She served on Moncton’s Chamber of Commerce and currently works for the New Brunswick Community College. It would appear that despite the difficult campaign ahead, the Liberals are serious about winning back Albert.

If the Liberals came to compete, the other parties did not. People’s Alliance have sent Sharon Buchanan of the Anglophone Rights Association. In other ridings across Southern New Brunswick a Anglo-activist might do well in firing up the fringe right, but in a riding like Albert where such a large component of electors are Francophone, Buchanan will likely crash early. The Greens fair only slightly better with a candidate who has flown under the radar. Immigrant and pig farmer Moranda van Geest will represent the Green Party in Albert.

Of the third parties in Albert, the New Democrats actually present the best alternative vote with Betty Weir. Clear, concise, and specific on issues, Weir has an unwavering and understandable set of goals for Albert and New Brunswick. Affordable daycare, a $15 minimum wage, and ending privatization are among Weir’s goals.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac

The Liberals currently hold Miramichi Bay-Neguac and typically win the riding with ballots to spare. MLA Lisa Harris won the seat back from the Progressive Conservatives in 2014 by more than 700 votes; a significant victory for such a small populace. Harris, the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care is a key member of the Gallant cabinet given the median age of New Brunswickers. Were Harris to lose her seat next month it would be a devastating upset to the Liberal Party.

Challenging Harris on behalf of the Progressive Conservatives is Debi Tozer. Tozer works for a small business and has no political experience or history. Her key issues have not been stated. It is likely that she is simply a lame duck candidate for her party. Especially given the knowledge that the People’s Alliance are working hard at chipping into the hard-right vote in the region; directly taking away from PC support. Even the loss of a hundred PC votes would be a crippling blow to the Tozer campaign.

The People’s Alliance almost had a star candidate in Terry Collette. Collette certainly has gone out of his way to secure the fringe alt-right vote. Holding a certificate in holistic medicine, Collette has posted several unfounded conspiracy theories on social media including: ISIS is controlled by Israel, life on Mars, and the standard September 11th theories espoused by the radical right. PC Leader Blain Higgs has demanded PANB explain their stance on these issues, which forced Kris Austin to distance himself from Collette.

The Greens offer James Denny of the Natoaganeg First Nation. Denny has some political experience within Natoaganeg, however this is his first foray into provincial politics. The Natoaganeg Nation has a significant population for the region and could double or even triple the Green vote from 2014 if Denny is able to galvanize his electorate. This would still not be enough to take the seat away from Harris, but would be a dramatic step for the Green Party.

The New Democrat in the contest is truck driver Willie Robichaud. Robichaud, like his counterpart in the Miramichi riding, has stated the need for a $15 minimum wage in New Brunswick. In 2014, the NDP came in third and as such it will be an uphill battle for Robichaud. However, this is near the area that overwhelming sent Yvon Godin to Ottawa. If Robichaud is able to tap into Godin’s popularity and influence, he may enjoy a  bump in support.

Miramichi 2018

Miramichi is likely to be less of a race and more of a coronation for incumbent Bill Fraser. In 2014, Fraser won by more than 1200 votes and has since performed with distinction as a Liberal Cabinet member. His own personal popularity is higher than that of the government and he remains free of much of his government’s baggage. In addition to Fraser’s popularity and performance, the other parties contending for his office have put forward unknown candidates.

The Progressive Conservatives have chosen failed Miramichi Mayoral candidate Peggy McLean. McLean is an avid volunteer and sits on many boards in her community, but after serving as a city councilor for a single term, electors chose not to give her the promotion to mayor. She came in third place, falling 3100 votes short of victory.

The Green Party has put forward Louann Savage; a retired teacher. Of all the candidates in Miramichi, Savage is the one to have put forward the most comprehensive personal platform. Her political passions center on crown lands, healthcare, ending privatization, and community decision making. Savage aims to improve health standards in Miramichi, and New Brunswick, by improving environmental protections and increasing the number of nurses.

Douglas Mullin of the New Democrats has also put forward a few point on a personal platform. He aims to increase the minimum wage to $15; a goal set by the federal NDP a few years ago. Most economists in Canada have suggested that $15 is the base livable wage in Canada. Mullin also suggests that tuition rates in New Brunswick must be lowered. Tuition in New Brunswick is the fourth highest in the country, higher than Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec, Prince Edward Island, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Rounding out Mullin’s platform is the importance of improving transportation in rural New Brunswick.

The People’s Alliance put forward Michelle Conroy. Conroy has repeated the party cry for change but has remained unclear about exactly what change she would like to see. An administrative worker for the Miramichi Regional Health Authority, Conroy is the first PANB candidate to run the still new riding of Miramichi. In 2014, the inaugural race for the new riding, the PANB put forward no candidate to contend.

In 2014 Miramichi was a two way race between Liberal and Progressive Conservative. In fact, an independent candidate scored higher than the Greens and New Democrats.

Drop The Writ

The 2018 provincial election is now officially underway. At the writ drop, only one party has secured an official candidate in each riding; the Liberal Party. The Progressive Conservatives have a candidate in all but two ridings; Restigouche West and Kent North. The Greens, New Democrats, and People’s Alliance seem to be having some trouble fielding prospects.

According to the polls, the Liberal Party of New Brunswick is in a comfortable lead with Blaine Higg’s Progressive Conservatives in a distant second. One cause for the weakened PC Party, as the polls suggest, is the rise of the populist People’s Alliance who have climbed to 6.6 percent. Kris Austin has chipped away at the PC’s hold on the right wing with his rhetoric on divisive issues such as duality, bilingualism, and taxation.

According to the CBC, the Green Party has successfully raised more funds than the New Democrats and People’s alliance for the two years leading into the election. Their poll numbers are on par with the NDP, and just ahead of the PANB. Whether or not Green Party leader David Coon is able to translate that into an increase in seats is yet unseen. But it is safe to say that the Greens are the third party to watch, ahead of the NDP and PANB.

The Liberals may have every reason to feel secure going into this election. Even before the surprise surplus announcement, the Liberals hold a 10 to 20 point lead depending on which pollster you follow. Add to that, Higgs’ inability to rile up his base and we enter an election where celebrative Liberals are racing to the polls and unenthused Tories are staying home. Could this be the end of New Brunswick’s single term premiers?

Ridings to watch include Fredericton West-Hanwell (where former NDP leader Dominic Cardy is now running for the PCs), Fredericton South (where incumbent David Coon hopes to retain his seat after the upset in 2014), the hotly contested Saint John Harbour where four parties are all running star candidates, and Carleton-Victoria which was a very narrow race in 2014.

Already the race has drama. Radio-Canada has decided to cancel the French Leaders’ Debate as Blaine Higgs is unable to debate in French. Radio-Canada gave Higgs the opportunity to sub in a French speaking candidate but Brian Gallant stated he would only debate with Higgs. Higgs has attacked Kris Austin on his lack of leadership in dealing with PANB candidates who have been caught sharing and posting racist, homophobic, and misogynist posts on social media.