Kris Austin’s Inaction Plan

What became blatantly obvious in the election of 2014 was that the People’s Alliance had no cohesiveness as a party. PANB candidates in neighboring ridings, even those in the same cities, had wildly differing ideas on what the party platform meant. Was it simply a matter of misinterpretations of the party platform? When every member of a party has a different interpretation of the party platform, what is the point of a platform?

Compounding the issue of platform interpretations was the party’s stance on free votes. Some in the populist circle see PANB’s promise to use the party whip as infrequently as possible in a positive light. What it actually means is that nobody knows what a PANB government would actually do. If Austen kept his promise of allowing party members to vote whichever way they felt so inclined, he would be a weak leader and a terrible premier. If he broke that promise and forced members to vote along a party line; nobody knows exactly what that party line would entail as the platform has been so open to debate.

Austin has excelled in exactly one area as leader of his fifth-place party; speaking out both sides of his mouth to appease whichever audience he happens to be standing in front of at the time. Some might compare his oratorical skills to that of Bill Clinton. He’s folksy when he speaks to rural communities. He’s angry when speaking to impoverished areas. He’s soft and nostalgic when speaking to seniors. Overall, people find him very likeable despite not knowing where he actually stands on most key issues. In short, Austin is strong on speech while remaining painfully inactive on action.

There is no better example than Austin’s lack of response to the Stewart Manuel debacle. Manuel is a vocal candidate for Carleton who has posted a series of highly questionable memes and posts to social media that would almost certainly end the campaign of anyone running for a respectable party. No leader would allow such a shady candidate to go on carrying the party banner after a national news outlet caught this most heinous scent.

The Manuel problem reached a low-point when he posted a meme from Ontario comparing the Liberals of that province to the Nazi Party of Adolf Hitler. It was not clear as to whether Manuel even realized the meme was targeted at the Ontario Liberal Party or if he meant it to reflect how he felt about the Liberals of this province. This came after a series of memes attacking Liberals and Progressive Conservatives alike. Ironically, Manuel uses PC Leader Blaine Higgs’ past affiliation with the Confederation of Regions as an attack against Higgs’ leadership; despite the fact that PANB is using much of the same language and policy directions that CoR employed during its heyday. As expected of most PANB candidates, there is an unhealthy amount of posts vilifying the Francophones of New Brunswick or at the very least the government policies that enrich Francophone society.

A problem like Manuel should be an easy fix for Kris Austin especially given how hard Austin strives to be liked. But nearly a week has passed since Global News brought the story online across the country and still no action from the leader’s office. Manuel has apologized for the Nazi meme only and the party has remained stunningly silent. What could have been a brilliant moment for Austin to display his leadership skills has become a blight on his polished image. Certainly, the luster has diminished.

A leader that doesn’t enforce party policy does not have a party. It is as simple as that. The People’s Alliance is a collection of men and women who collectively smear purple on their campaign signs and stick close to Austin in the hopes of gaining some likeability of their own. However, they do not share a singular vision of New Brunswick nor do they guarantee to deliver a unified government if elected. Austin’s inaction at the grassroots level, even with a small group of volunteers and candidates, is a clear sign that he lacks the leadership skills necessary to run a province.

The Blame Game and the Gravy Train

Election day is still months away but the blame game is under way. New Brunswick politics is a never ending cycle of red and blue shaming. Realistically, both parties often mirror one another’s policies and actually behave very much the same when in power. But that doesn’t deter either faction from trying desperately to drive a wedge between New Brunswickers and potential voters by shifting blame upon each other and give the appearance of political difference.

This year has seen a particular vitriol from the major players. Is the extra venom a result of the new trend in NB politics; to dispose of a government after a single term? Or is this reflective of the American influence to make mud slinging personal? Premier Brian Gallant has attacked PCNB Leader Blaine Higgs over his affiliation with the Irving Corporation. Does Higgs’ 33 year Irving allegiance really put him in a questionable position were he to win the September election?

Higgs made the controversial decision in March to fire party Executive Director Stephen Smith to insert his friend Paul D’Astous. Since then, PCNB has been in full attack mode. Most notably, Higgs has assailed Gallant over allegations of Speaker Chris Collins committing harassment. The attacks cut deep in the age of the #Metoo movement and #Time’s Up, but it was not made clear of who or even the gender of the person allegedly harassed or the nature of the harassment. Many believe the attacks are purely politically motivated as Collins is a very popular politician who has served three terms and is a key factor in preventing the PCNB from a breakthrough in the Moncton area.

Transportation Minister Bill Fraser then volleyed that problems facing New Brunswick highways and bridges are the fault of former finance minister; Blaine Higgs. Road conditions are notoriously poor in New Brunswick with pot holes out numbering citizens in some areas. Conditions on Route 616 and the decision not to replace the Cherryvale Bridge are directly traced back to Higgs and the Alward Government, claims Fraser. Route 616 is in such a state of disrepair that shifting blame to Higgs is to put a major safety issue directly on the shoulders of the PC leader.

An attempt to overcome the attacks levied against him, Gallant has announced a mountain of new spending. The spending will most benefit the healthcare sector and also the Saint John region. The belief is that the influx of revenue the government will gain from the legalization and distribution of marijuana will make this spending boom possible. But Higgs has attacked the spending and ignored the possibility of a cash influx. Gallant has promised to spend $16 million to fill 25 current vacancies immediately.

 

Trouble for McKenzie

The New Democratic Party of New Brunswick is struggling to stay above water. Leader Jennifer McKenzie was acclaimed leader without opposition but not because there was no opposition to her being leader; but rather because nobody else wanted the job. Former leader Dominic Cardy carved up the party and left deep divisions and high debts.

The election campaign has not begun officially yet, but the other parties are hard at work nominating candidates across the province. Unsurprisingly, the nominations for Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are nearly full. The Green Party and People’s Alliance are also busy putting names to paper. The NDP however is lagging far behind with only 7 out of 49 nominations. The NDP is ahead of only Keep It Simple Solutions in terms of nominations.

Early polling for the party is not good either. The party polled lower in March than at the time of the previous election which saw them win no seats. They are still polling higher than the Greens, PANB, and KISS which might be their only silver lining. Those polls put the Liberal Party in a distant lead over McKenzie’s fledgling party.

McKenzie’s greatest hope of gaining any seat in the upcoming election was an obvious decision, one which Cardy lacked the foresight to consider. She decided to run in the one riding which actually sent a New Democrat to the legislature in recent years; Saint John Harbour. However, McKenzie’s trump card may be misplaced as Saint John Harbour is set to be one of the most hotly contested races in 2018. The Greens put forward stalwart Wayne Dryer. Also, popular former teacher Barry Ogden announced his intention to seek the nomination of the Progressive Conservative Party. The Liberals won the riding in 2014 by only 71 votes.

With no money, few candidates, and relatively zero news coverage, it would appear to be a very bad year for McKenzie to fight an election. It is crucial that the NDP reach out to potential voters this summer in a blitz of community barbeques and meet and greets. The riding associations need to formulate a plan to balance their books and appeal to favorable candidates before it’s too late. If McKenzie isn’t able to turn some numbers around, it could spell the end of the New Brunswick New Democrats.

Populism in New Brunswick

When you hear a politician use the term “common-sense” you should shudder and cringe. “Common-sense” is a simplified and often anti-intellectual approach to complex problems that do not have quick and easy solutions. Populism is on the rise globally and a good way to determine whether or not a politician or political party is populist is by counting how many times they use the term “common-sense”.

Why is populism bad? Most dictionary definitions will flatly point out that populism is inherently anti-intellectual, unorthodox, and limited by scope. Why is populism popular? It is meant to be a grass roots movement and for the people. But for which people?

Populism depends upon an “us vs them” mentality. Historically, in Canada, that meant a class struggle; haves vs have-nots. In more recent years it has taken an alt-right turn. In American politics populism is seen in movements championed by the Tea Party and Donald Trump; essentially white America versus Latino, Arab, and black America. In Canada we have seen populism in candidates like Kellie Leitch, Brad Trost, and Steven Blaney.

Sadly, New Brunswick has not been immune to the rise of populism. Many New Brunswickers find themselves resisting intellectualism and embracing identity politics. The existence of anglo-rights groups is a disturbing trend. Some Anglophones have publicly stated that they are “the most discriminated group in New Brunswick” while others have proclaimed they are “the most discriminated people in history”. The intellectual response would be to mention the holocaust, slavery, colonialism, or Russia’s murder of LBGT citizenry. But populists ignore the intellectual response and retort with baseless propaganda.

Returning to anti-intellectualism, it is natural for people to want to understand a political entity’s stratagem. Simplified solutions are not the answer. An example; taxes are too high in New Brunswick and people can not afford their homes. Too simple a fix would be to lower all property taxes. Why that does not work is that the provincial government can already not afford the basic guarantees for the province; healthcare, road clearing and repair, senior care, access to water, etc. It is far safer to have an intellectual solution to this problem that might not be as easy to comprehend than an easy fix that leads to a bigger problem.

The parties that appear to have embraced populism the most is Keep It Simple Solutions (KISS NB) and People’s Alliance (PANB). KISS NB blames bilingualism for students testing poorly on provincial exams; despite any scientific evidence and despite multilingual school districts around the globe having higher test scores than those in New Brunswick. People’s Alliance also place blame on duality for many of New Brunswick’s woes and favours integration.

KISS NB is having difficulty fielding candidates for the impending election, but PANB has already put many candidates forward. Caution should be urged whenever facing political parties who offer “quick-fix-common-sense-solutions” and are ready to put blame no any specific group of people for the dilemmas of society.

Deceit, Secrecy, and Division; Blaine Higgs in Power

New Brunswick in a unique province. A single, privately owned company controls much of the economy and all of the print media. It is the only officially bilingual province in Canada. These two factors are the cause of a great deal of tension in the province. On any given day you can hear New Brunswickers debate whether Irving is a savior or a curse, help or hindrance. You will almost certainly hear a debate on language rights.

Language debates are not new in New Brunswick. They go back, at least to the repatriation of the Canadian constitution. New Brunswick, with its considerable Acadien population, cemented language rights in law. As with any civil rights advancement throughout history, there was an immediate backlash. A federal political party emerged; the Confederation of Regions. CoR was a far right, populist, party of the West. As it spread East to New Brunswick, the party also became vehemently opposed to French language rights. While federally the party hoped to restructure the electoral system by forming regions with an equal amount of MPs (making the Western provinces a super-power come election time), the NB CoR sought to eliminate French language rights.

Current PC leader, Blaine Higgs was a part of the CoR. He even ran for leadership but failed in that venture. Since running for the leadership of the PC Party, he has downplayed his involvement with CoR. Higgs has said that the reason for leaving CoR was the rising anti-French sentiment but that’s impossible as it was a key policy from day one. Higgs won the leadership of the PC Party on the third ballot, with considerable dissension from his opponents who gave their support to other candidates as they were eliminated from the ballot.

CoR was once the official opposition in the legislature but has since shuttered its doors after infighting, and failing to elect or reelect MLAs. As Higgs supporters would point out, that was a long time ago. But since the closure of CoR, Higgs is still not bilingual. As Premier Alward’s minister of finance, Higgs practiced CoR fiscal restraint which actually slowed economic growth to half of what Premier Lord enjoyed in the early to mid-2000s.

In 2014, the Conference Board of Canada actually ranked New Brunswick as having one of the worst economies in the world. This came after four years of Higgs’ use of CoR economics; itself a recycled policy of Social Credit economic policy; favoring big business in the hope that trickle down will strengthen lower social classes.

It is possible that Higgs’ support of big business economics stems from his lifetime career at Irving Oil and then Canaport LNG. Higgs’ connection to big oil and position as finance minister also explains why the Alward government put such a strong focus on oil, gas, and mining as opposed to agriculture, retail, tourism, and small business.

Higgs is in a tough position when he goes to the polls next year asking both Acadiens and small business to swing their support his way. His opponent, a fluently bilingual Premier, who also owned and operated small businesses is still riding high in approval ratings.

Looking For A Leader

2016 saw the Progressive Conservatives of New Brunswick scour their ranks for a stand out leader who could combat Premier Brian Gallant in the 2018 provincial election. The October convention was billed to be a highly contested bout; the winner was anybody’s guess. The candidates included Mike Allen, Mel Norton, Blaine Higgs, and Monica Barley to name a few. The convention was every bit as exciting as the hype leading up to it. Security removed a Liberal cabinet member who came to observe the event. Loyalties shifted throughout the event. In the end, it was Blaine Higgs who came out on top.

Higgs represents the swing riding of Quispamsis; a riding he won from incumbent Liberal Mary Schryer in 2010. Schryer attempted to win back the riding in 2014, but Higgs again came out on top. Higgs was minister of finance under Premier Alward and has a strong following.

The New Democrats however find themselves in a more precarious situation. For years, New Democrat leader Dominic Cardy faced split support among New Democrats. He was seen by some as being too close-to-centre for what is (in theory) a socialist party. Among his supporters though was an avid faith and strong support. Yet, strong support from only half of a third party’s membership is not enough. Cardy resigned once in 2014 but the NDP council voted unanimously to reject that resignation. Cardy then overturned his decision to depart and limped forward as leader until December of 2016 when he announced he would again quit; effective January 1st.

In a daring move that shocked no one, Cardy announced his loyalty to newly minted Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs. To say he crossed the floor would imply that he had a seat in the legislature, but after numerous attempts, he never did. So Cardy darted from one end of the political spectrum for the other and left the NDP in the hands of an interim leader.

Now, like the federal NDP and federal Conservatives, the provincial NDP search for a leader. But unlike the highly coveted PCNB leadership, the NBNDP leadership has been slow to draw any contesters. The federal NDP face the same problem as outgoing leader Tom Mulcair appears to have left the party in shambles. Interestingly, Mulcair faced the same allegation as Cardy of being too close-to-centre and allowed the Liberals to absorb the leftist vote. Less interesting is that Cardy was a Mulcair supporter leading up to Mulcair’s victory in 2012. But it wasn’t long before Cardy’s support fell flat; refusing to even attend the convention in 2016 to vote on whether Mulcair should stay on as leader. This despite the support given to Cardy during the 2014 provincial election and the support given to Cardy’s controversial stance on fracking in New Brunswick.

So clearly Higgs shouldn’t expect much from Cardy’s support. But the symbolism of the move gives Higgs some bragging rights at least.

More to come as the dust settles.

Justin’s Broken Promises

He rode in on the coattails of a father he could never live up to. He splashed onto the public scene with great hair, a warm smile, charisma not seen since Brian Mulroney, and a chariot full of sparkling promises meant to titillate and romance us. But like the great illusionists, Justin hid tricks up his sleeve and secrets behind every veil. But more than dashing good looks, warm words, and a coveted surname; Justin had a golden asset- he proceeded Stephen Harper.

Despite his obvious shortcomings as Liberal leader, and then as Prime Minister of Canada, the criticism of Justin hasn’t been all that critical. Most of his criticisms are followed by the snide comeback, “At least he’s better than Harper.” At first, in the early weeks of his term, that was a fair and true response. But as we limp into 2017, the list of broken campaign promises and shortcomings pile higher. Despite this, Justin still has higher approval ratings than Harper did at any point during his term in office.

So what are the broken promises and why should it matter to New Brunswick? Here’s a breakdown of just a few of Justin’s broken covenant:

The Military: According to Statistics Canada, just under 22% of Canada’s forces hail from Atlantic Canada and as such, the military is a major employer in New Brunswick. Given this information, how the military is treated should be of utmost importance in New Brunswick.  Justin promised to maintain military spending and keep in pace with Harper’s planned increases- this was one of the first promises to go. Justin promised to pay veteran’s four year post-secondary tuition costs- that plan was quietly axed. In response to the public backlash that Harper received when he cut life-long disability pensions for veterans, Justin promised to reinstate those pensions if elected; but on this too he reneged. He promised to cancel Stephen Harper’s ill-planned purchase of F-35 fighter jets (the engines fail in cold arctic weather and this is Canada), but Justin stuck to Harper’s plan and is moving forward with the purchase which will put Canada into debt and pilots into jeopardy.

Aboriginal Peoples: New Brunswick has a beautiful community of First Nations people with a lush and rich history. Unfortunately, under 9 years of Harper rule, relations between the federal government and our First Nations have corroded. Justin promised to fix this broken bond and improve life for our first peoples. He guaranteed that First Nations would have a veto over natural resources in their territories, that he would invest an additional $50 million annually in post-secondary education for aboriginal peoples, and that he would immediately adopt the United Nations declaration of rights of Indigenous People. All of these promises too, were broken. Yet, Justin takes every photo opportunity he can with our First Nations. He talks the talk, but when given the chance, he chooses not to walk the walk.

LGBT: New Brunswick has a vibrant queer community. And as he does with First Nations, Justin loves to have photo ops with the LGBT community at parades and social events. Perhaps he taps from his father’s popularity with this segment of society as it was his father who decriminalized homosexuality and via the Charter of Rights and Freedoms paved the way for other gay rights (such as adoption and marriage). But Justin made only one promise to the queer community in his 2015 election campaign; to end the discriminatory practice of banning men who have sex with men from donating blood. This, an easy promise to keep, was also broken. Gay men are still treated as second class citizens. In fact, an article from the CBC revealed that since Justin took office, transgendered people are now also banned from donating; a discriminatory practice that didn’t exist under Harper.

Small Business and Youth Employment: Justin promised a tax break for small businesses from Harper’s 11% to a new Liberal rate of just 9%. As we saw in the 2016 budget, that was lie. But at least small businesses would have all the youth employment investment to rely on; such as the annual $40 million youth co-op plan. Nay, that was also a lie. Justin promised $775 million in investment for job training and skills development- another lie. Now, we find youth and small business hurting just as much (but no worse) than under Harper.

With all of the broken promises on spending (on the military, veterans, youth, Aboriginals, and small business) you would juxtapose that the Liberal government of Justin is in the black. We couldn’t possibly running deficits with the government clutching the purse strings so tightly. Wrong. Justin has sent Canada, and New Brunswick along with it, cascading into debt levels never before seen North of the border. This means less money for healthcare, national defense, tax breaks for families, and the arts.

That’s just a brief overview of some broken promises and betrayals by Prime Minister Justin. This doesn’t even touch on his policy to go forward with Harper’s secret police bill (Bill C-51), his inaction on the much criticised Fair Elections Act (Bill C-23), his total about face on electoral reform, his adoption of Harper’s environmental targets, his sloth-like slowness on legalization of marijuana, or his legalization of cash-for-access.

So can we really say that we are any better off than we were with Stephen Harper? When Justin adopts policies and targets set by his predecessor, while abandoning many of the principles which got him elected? We’ve all been duped by a very talented public relations man. But we can’t allow selfies to take precedence over safety or imagery to outweigh investment in our future. We are better off with Justin in only one regard; right now, everyone likes him. But when that luster starts to dim, and fuzzy speeches about equality start demanding action; we are going to find ourselves in a very bad place. New Brunswick can not afford Justin.

The Red Wave

As we watched the returns on October 19th, just days before Halloween, the only image that came to mind was the elevator doors opening in Stanley Kubrick’s The Shining. Tories and New Democrats were washed away in a flood of crimson red ballots. Even in Acadie-Bathurst, widely believed to stand behind the NDP, was a landslide victory for the Liberals.

What happened? Did New Brunswick get caught up in Trudeaumania II? Or was our province quietly enraged with Stephen Harper more than the polls suggested? And what happened to Tom Mulcair who was riding so high in the polls when the election was called?

Acadie-Bathurst was supposed to be won by a bright, young, and attractive New Democrat by the name of Jason Godin. He was personable, friendly, and had the full backing of former NDP MP Yvon Godin. He is also the youngest mayor (Maisonnette) in the history of New Brunswick at 22 years old. Despite all this, Godin lost his election to Serge Cormier by nearly 5,800 votes!

In Beausejour, Dominic Leblanc won with 69%. The runner up was the NDP with 15%.

Fredericton was supposed to be a close race. It wasn’t. Liberal Matt DeCourcey slayed incumbent Keith Ashfield by nearly 10,000 votes. A bloodbath by any account.

Even Tory stronghold Fundy Royal went red. Alaina Lockhart narrowly ousted Rob Moore. One commentator joked, “In Fundy Royal, the Tories will rob no more”, a reference to the series of spending scandals which plagued the Conservatives over the past few years in office.

Madawaska-Restigouche saw Rene Arseneault (L) defeat second place contender Rosaire L’Italien (NDP) by 11,108 ballots. The Tory here came in third place.

Pat Finnigan (L) handily deafeated Tilly O’Neill-Gordon (C) in Miramichi-Grand Lake.

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe cast 30,054 ballots for Liberal Ginette Petitpas Taylor. Conservative Robert Goguen barely won more than 11,000. A crippling blow to the Tories.

New Brunswick Southwest was a closer battle. But it was supposed to be an untouchable Tory stronghold as well. However, Liberal Karen Ludwig managed to beat John Williamson by 2,026 votes.

Wayne Long coasted to an easy victory over Rodney Weston in Saint John-Rothesay.

TJ Harvey won Tobique-Mactaquac for the Liberal Party.

What does this red wave say about New Brunswick? Certainly it proves that we are not the little conservative province that some would paint us to be. What does this mean for our Liberal Premier? Does this overwhelming show of support for the federal Liberals mean that some of the discontent for our provincial Liberals has been forgot? More analysis to come.

New Brunswick: Leftist Country

Most people tend to think of New Brunswick as a right leaning province. Most people would be wrong. The problem plaguing New Brunswick (and most of Canada) is that there is only one real option for right wing voters whereas the left have two to three equally viable options. So where the left, who make up more than half the electorate, have a splintered vote; the right usually take the lead with only 30%-45% of the voteshare.

Take Fredericton for example. In 2011 Keith Ashfield had his best returns with ALMOST half the vote. In 2008 he won only 42% support of the riding. In 2006 only 34.66% of the college town voted right wing. In fact, the last time Fredericton actually voted more than 48% in favour of the right was in the year 2000 (15 years ago) and they didn’t win because back then there were two right wing parties to vote for. In 2000 30% of the vote went to the Progressive Conservative Party and 21% went to the ultra conservative Reform Party.

Saint John-Rothesay is another prime example.Rodney Weston has never had 50% of the vote. In fact, Weston first won power with only 39% support. 61% of the riding found Weston unsupportable. The last time more than half the riding found a right wing candidate palatable was again in 2000. The riding was also overwhelmingly leftist throughtout the conservative 1980’s but sent Tories to Ottawa because the left split the vote over a whole myriad of leftist options.

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe also suffered the vote split curse. One of the most leftist ridings in the province sent Conservative Robert Goguen to Ottawa with only 35% support. This is such a leftist riding that it has often sent Liberals to Ottawa with more than 50% of the vote and still giving considerable support to other leftist parties. It is a travesty that such a haven of progressive thinkers and voters would be represented by a radical right wing representative in the capitol.

Madawaska-Restigouche, also a left leaning riding, has been represented in Ottawa by a right winger since 2011 with less than half support. The riding was Liberal for ten years prior.

The former riding of Miramichi was Liberal for the majority of its history. Through mulitple redistrubutions and redrawings of the electoral map; Miramichi was Liberal from 1945 to 1984 and after a brief flirtation with Mulroney’s PCs turned red again from 1988 to 2008.

Beausejour was also a long time leftist riding. From original Trudeaumania in 1968, the riding was Liberal until 1997 when it decided to give the New Democrats a try. The New Democrat they elected, Angela Vautour crossed the floor and became a Progressive Conservative. Beasejour was incensed and at first chance elected a Liberal again. It has been Liberal ever since.

Acadie-Bathurst might be the most left leaning riding in the country. Since 1900, Acadie-Bathurst has only elected liberals and social demcrats with only two exceptions. Those exceptions proved short lived and easily forgotten.

It stands to reason that if New Brunswick used a preferential ballot or single transferable vote, it would no longer elect more than one conservative per election. A system where a candidate must have at least half the vote allows voters to select a first, second, third, fourth choice, etc. The electorate would not be guaranteed its first choice, but would not necessarily be stuck with its last choice either. For example, Green Voters could give their first choice to Elizabeth May. But should Greens have the fewest numbers in their riding, could then select a New Democrat, Liberal, independent, or whoever most reflects the policies of their first choice. Another benefit is that voters would never again have to vote “strategically”, always giving their top spot to the party that truly represents them.

Crunch Time

Only days seperate us from election day. Advance polls were a huge success with 3.6 million Canadians turning out to vote. British Columbia and Ontario led the pack for advance polls; interesting because many have speculated that it is those two provinces which will decide the winner on October 19th. Another general understanding is that the majority of advance voters come out early to vote against incumbent governments. That does not bode well for Mister Harper.

New Brunswick is split down the middle according to the latest polls. Five seats will go to Justin Trudeau, four to Stephen Harper, and Tom Mulcair will win one. Unlike the rest of the country, New Brunswick’s polls have remained fairly consistant. Still, New Brunswick has a few close races.

Fredericton is a much tighter race than some of the national broadcasters and pollsters are projecting. One poll conducting at ground level by a local candidate suggests the Conservative and Liberal parties in a dead heat. The New Democrats are in a distant third but the Green Party nipping very closely at the orange heels. If that internal poll is accurate, a handfull of NDP or Green faithful could give the election to either incumbent Keith Ashfield or Liberal challenger Matt DeCourcey. That is unless they decide to stick to their first pick and battle for third place.

Despite early success in the polls, the New Democrats have fallen apart in Saint John-Rothesay. Rodney Weston has made the come back of a lifetime and passed Wayne Long for first place. The margin of error puts Conservative Weston and Liberal Long in a close race. AJ Griffin of the NDP s still fighting to stay in the race but trails at a distant third. The Greens failed to garner even enough support to open a campaign office in Saint John-Rothesay.

Miramichi-Grand Lake is too close to call. Conservative incumbent Tilly O’Neill Gordon leads by a fraction of a percentage point over Liberal Pat Finnigan. Fewer than a hundred voters may seperate the two on October 19th. Both candidates should reach out to extended family and make sure everyone at the family bbq comes out to vote. It may actually be that close!

Interestingly, there is one riding where the Conservative’s strongest opposition is not Trudeau’s Liberals. Strategic voters in Fundy Royal should look to Jennifer McKenzie of the New Democrats if they are unhappy with incumbent Rob Moore. The NDP are ahead of the Liberals by just more than the margin of error. The NDP platform does, at least in theory, better fit the make up of the Fundy Royal riding. Also, Jennifer McKenzie is arguably a stronger contender than Liberal Alaina Lockhart. It would take nearly the entire combined force of Liberal and NDP voters to send either of their candidates to Ottawa from Fundy Royal. The Green Party voters in Fundy Royal would also be wise to lend their support to McKenzie as they are so far behind in the polls that voting Green isn’t even making a statement. Also, the NDP are offering up its most green-friendly platform to date.

New Brunswick is poised to send more Conservatives to Ottawa than any other province on the East Coast.