Drop The Writ

The 2018 provincial election is now officially underway. At the writ drop, only one party has secured an official candidate in each riding; the Liberal Party. The Progressive Conservatives have a candidate in all but two ridings; Restigouche West and Kent North. The Greens, New Democrats, and People’s Alliance seem to be having some trouble fielding prospects.

According to the polls, the Liberal Party of New Brunswick is in a comfortable lead with Blaine Higg’s Progressive Conservatives in a distant second. One cause for the weakened PC Party, as the polls suggest, is the rise of the populist People’s Alliance who have climbed to 6.6 percent. Kris Austin has chipped away at the PC’s hold on the right wing with his rhetoric on divisive issues such as duality, bilingualism, and taxation.

According to the CBC, the Green Party has successfully raised more funds than the New Democrats and People’s alliance for the two years leading into the election. Their poll numbers are on par with the NDP, and just ahead of the PANB. Whether or not Green Party leader David Coon is able to translate that into an increase in seats is yet unseen. But it is safe to say that the Greens are the third party to watch, ahead of the NDP and PANB.

The Liberals may have every reason to feel secure going into this election. Even before the surprise surplus announcement, the Liberals hold a 10 to 20 point lead depending on which pollster you follow. Add to that, Higgs’ inability to rile up his base and we enter an election where celebrative Liberals are racing to the polls and unenthused Tories are staying home. Could this be the end of New Brunswick’s single term premiers?

Ridings to watch include Fredericton West-Hanwell (where former NDP leader Dominic Cardy is now running for the PCs), Fredericton South (where incumbent David Coon hopes to retain his seat after the upset in 2014), the hotly contested Saint John Harbour where four parties are all running star candidates, and Carleton-Victoria which was a very narrow race in 2014.

Already the race has drama. Radio-Canada has decided to cancel the French Leaders’ Debate as Blaine Higgs is unable to debate in French. Radio-Canada gave Higgs the opportunity to sub in a French speaking candidate but Brian Gallant stated he would only debate with Higgs. Higgs has attacked Kris Austin on his lack of leadership in dealing with PANB candidates who have been caught sharing and posting racist, homophobic, and misogynist posts on social media.

Carleton-Victoria

This race is a little crowded. This race is also a little drama-filled and has stolen some attention from the overall election. Though it is comprised of two Tory ridings, there is no incumbent running for re-election. The Liberal candidadte is no longer a Liberal as he was suspended from the party over allegations of fraud. There are two independents running. There is also a Green and New democrat just trying to be heard.

The district is made up of portions of both Carleton (PC stronghold) and Victoria-Tobique (Liberal from 1987-2010). PC incumbents Dale Graham and Wes McLean are, for the moment, leaving public life. This left the PC nomination open for Dr. Colin Lockhart, who has practiced medicine in three provinces as well as providing medical care relief in Haiti. He would be the likely frontrunner were it not for the low approval rating of the current PC Alward Government, especially in the hardhit rural regions.

The would-be prime opponent is Liberal-not-Liberal Andrew Harvey. Despite being suspended temporarily from Liberal caucus, he is still featured on the Liberal campaign site and still boasts Liberal signs in and around his riding. When he isn’t running for office, he is an industrious buisnessperson who employs many in his community. He and other members of his family are currently being charged for defrauding the government of a considerable sum of money. Unfortunately, the court hearings will not be held until after the election. Should Harvey win the riding, and then be found innocent, Brian Gallant will allow Harvey to return to Liberal caucus. Harvey has alleged that the timing of these charges, laid by the RCMP, are bogus and conveniently timed to interfere with the election. Harvey does have until September 20th to formally withdraw from the election.

Joe Gee of the NDP is a jack of all trades. He has been a teacher, a farmer, a welder, a community support worker, and more. He also undertook the task of researching and bringing to life the history of the Underground Railroad; which saw Black Americans come to Canada via New Brunswick to escape slavery. Gee is an interesting and ardent democrat who may actually have become the prime opponent to continued PC rule of teh region in the wake of Harvey’s court battle.

Garth Farquhar is the owner of Tobique Log Homes. For more than thirty years, he has built homes for a living.

Not happy with any of the parties, Carleton-Victoria has two options to vote independent; Carter Edgar and Terry Ritchie.

!FRAUD!

Or more appropiately, two allegations of fraud have been charged against Carleton-Victoria candidate Andrew Harvey, his brother, and their father, the former Liberal MLA B. Fred Harvey. The RCMP allege that the family has defrauded the New Brunswick government of more than $5000. This turn of events has turned the Liberal campaign on its head.

Liberal leader Brian Gallant has said of the events that he was disappointed Harvey didn’t disclose this to him or the Liberal team. Gallant made the decision to temporarily suspend Harvey from the Liberal caucus until after the court hearing in hopes that Harvey will be found innocent. If he is not, then Harvey will be suspended indefinitely.

The Progressive Party wasted no time in attacking the Liberals and their leader while avoiding any direct chastizing of the Harvey family. David Alward has said to the CBC that Gallant’s decision will reflect his leadership, but chose not to condemn Harvey himself. He also said that the vetting process to become a PC candidate is strenuous and includes criminal background checks. PC candidate for Carleton-Victoria, Colin Lockhart said that he knows Harvey and hopes that all of this will pass for him and the family.

Carleton-Victoria is also being contested by NDP candidate Joe Gee, who said that this doesn’t change what the election is about and that  he will continue to push ahead.

More to come on the riding and updates on the status of Harvey’s candidacy.