Drop The Writ

The 2018 provincial election is now officially underway. At the writ drop, only one party has secured an official candidate in each riding; the Liberal Party. The Progressive Conservatives have a candidate in all but two ridings; Restigouche West and Kent North. The Greens, New Democrats, and People’s Alliance seem to be having some trouble fielding prospects.

According to the polls, the Liberal Party of New Brunswick is in a comfortable lead with Blaine Higg’s Progressive Conservatives in a distant second. One cause for the weakened PC Party, as the polls suggest, is the rise of the populist People’s Alliance who have climbed to 6.6 percent. Kris Austin has chipped away at the PC’s hold on the right wing with his rhetoric on divisive issues such as duality, bilingualism, and taxation.

According to the CBC, the Green Party has successfully raised more funds than the New Democrats and People’s alliance for the two years leading into the election. Their poll numbers are on par with the NDP, and just ahead of the PANB. Whether or not Green Party leader David Coon is able to translate that into an increase in seats is yet unseen. But it is safe to say that the Greens are the third party to watch, ahead of the NDP and PANB.

The Liberals may have every reason to feel secure going into this election. Even before the surprise surplus announcement, the Liberals hold a 10 to 20 point lead depending on which pollster you follow. Add to that, Higgs’ inability to rile up his base and we enter an election where celebrative Liberals are racing to the polls and unenthused Tories are staying home. Could this be the end of New Brunswick’s single term premiers?

Ridings to watch include Fredericton West-Hanwell (where former NDP leader Dominic Cardy is now running for the PCs), Fredericton South (where incumbent David Coon hopes to retain his seat after the upset in 2014), the hotly contested Saint John Harbour where four parties are all running star candidates, and Carleton-Victoria which was a very narrow race in 2014.

Already the race has drama. Radio-Canada has decided to cancel the French Leaders’ Debate as Blaine Higgs is unable to debate in French. Radio-Canada gave Higgs the opportunity to sub in a French speaking candidate but Brian Gallant stated he would only debate with Higgs. Higgs has attacked Kris Austin on his lack of leadership in dealing with PANB candidates who have been caught sharing and posting racist, homophobic, and misogynist posts on social media.

Kent North and Kent South

It’s a full house in both Kent ridings! The highly contested ridings will see members of all 5 parties battle it out for two seats. The earliest sign of an interestig showdown came during the 2013 redrawing of the electoral map when Kent merged with Kent South and set two incumbents against one another; PC Claude Williams and Liberal leader Brian Gallant.

Gallant’s biggest criticism at that time was that his youth and inexperience was just too big a problem to ignore for the leader of the then-crippled party. Adversely, Williams is a seasoned statesman having held cabinet positions including Minister of Education and Minister of Transportation. Needless to say, Gallant abandoned the high-risk fight and moved his candidacy to Shediac Bay-Dieppe.

Now Williams finds himself in a five person battle royale against Benoit Bourque (L), Paul Musgrave (NDP), Tina Beers (G), and Joel MacIntosh (PANB). Bourque has spent much of his adult life working in the international sector and has jet set to nearly thirty countries. How important is international relations at the provincial level? Bourque believes it is totally invaluable. Musgrave comes to NB from British Columbia where he ran for office under the BCGreen banner. Beers is actually one of the NB Green’s most interesting candidates; the wife of a retired soldier (she has been all over the world as her husband has been stationed and restationed), she is Chair of the Local Service District of Harcourt, a Community Coordinator for United Way, President of the Kent Community Inclusion Network, and is a founding member of the Kent Food Security Network. MacIntosh is a volunteer firefighter and also member of several community organizations.

The returns from the last election in Kent South (and Kent), in conjuction with the latest polling numbers would indicate a two way race here between Williams and Bourque. But the community participation and personal popularity of both the Green and PANB candidates should be considered. This year may see a sudden increase in ballots for at least the Green Party in Kent South.

Kent North, another pile up of candidates will see Liberal incumbent Bertrand LeBlanc defending against Nancy Blanchard (PC), Allan Marsh (NDP), Rebeka Frazer-Chiasson (G), and Josie Rivard (PANB). Rivard wants to “take back our democracy” with a combination of free votes and fiscal conservatism. Frazer-Chiasson, like all Greens this year is very concerned about and involved with food sovereignty. She is a member of the National Farmers Union and sits on the board of directors of the Conservation Council NB. Marsh is a hobby farmer, Chairman of the Local Service District, involved with Tri-County Search and Rescue, and Our Environmen, Our Choice. Most interestingly, Marsh was one of the demonstrators at the Rexton Anti-Shale Gas Protest in 2013. Marsh was credited for his level-headedness during the events and gave many interviews to the press, elaborating on the fears and concerns of those involved. Blanchard, the PC, is a successful buisness manager and local singer who feels the collective voice of Kent North hasn’t been heard by MLA LeBlanc. Kent North has some very right wing views and this may give the PANB an edge to steal some support from Blanchard’s PC base, giving LeBlanc an edge over the Right. But Marsh and Frazer-Chiasson are both strong Leftist candidates as well. Kent North could very well be an interesting riding to watch.