Off To The Races

After nearly a month of assuring and reassuring his electorate, Premier Blaine Higgs has called for an election for September 14th. Despite going back on his word, it may prove to be a smart move on the part of the former Irving man. Should the New Brunswick electorate reflect poll findings south of the border; left leaning votes are less likely to risk the transmission of Covid 19 by going out to vote than their right leaning counterparts.

It has been a very difficult four years for the embattled premier. He narrowly held on to his minority government by working in lockstep with the far-right fringe People’s Party of New Brunswick. Higgs has had difficulty passing legislation through the legislature and has seen several big ticket bills defeated and drew the ire of large swaths of the populace.

Higgs’ Progressive Conservatives raised much controversy when they announced a decision to close several emergency rooms in rural areas between certain times in a cost saving effort. The attempted cuts were seen by many as a partisan decision as Liberal ridings were targeted. In February, just a month before the global outbreak of Covid 19, Higgs back out at the last moment due to “good conscience”.

In June, Higgs announced that his party would no longer be moving forward with their controversial power grab with Bill 49. The bill would have increased the power of government and police during the Covid crisis despite the relative low numbers of the virus in the province and the seeming lack of necessity for such powers.

Almost immediately after the government ceased their power grab, the government was defeated on another highly controversial bill which would have seen mandatory vaccinations.  Liberals and Progressive Conservatives enjoyed a free vote and saw members from both parties vote in favour of and against Bill 11. The Bill was the brainchild of former New Democrat leader and current PC Minister of Education Dominic Cardy.

Despite all of Higgs’ many failings and controversies; his party remains in the best standing among the four parties represented in the legislature. Kevin Vickers, leader of the Liberals has had difficulty in gaining popularity and improving the party standing left behind by Brian Gallant. Kris Austin and the PANB has not been able to gain much traction beyond his fringe supporter base. David Coon’s Green Party popularity is in doubt over repeated abstentions. The New Democrats are certainly in the worst shape of any New Brunswick party with no representation in the legislature.

Kris Austin’s Inaction Plan

What became blatantly obvious in the election of 2014 was that the People’s Alliance had no cohesiveness as a party. PANB candidates in neighboring ridings, even those in the same cities, had wildly differing ideas on what the party platform meant. Was it simply a matter of misinterpretations of the party platform? When every member of a party has a different interpretation of the party platform, what is the point of a platform?

Compounding the issue of platform interpretations was the party’s stance on free votes. Some in the populist circle see PANB’s promise to use the party whip as infrequently as possible in a positive light. What it actually means is that nobody knows what a PANB government would actually do. If Austen kept his promise of allowing party members to vote whichever way they felt so inclined, he would be a weak leader and a terrible premier. If he broke that promise and forced members to vote along a party line; nobody knows exactly what that party line would entail as the platform has been so open to debate.

Austin has excelled in exactly one area as leader of his fifth-place party; speaking out both sides of his mouth to appease whichever audience he happens to be standing in front of at the time. Some might compare his oratorical skills to that of Bill Clinton. He’s folksy when he speaks to rural communities. He’s angry when speaking to impoverished areas. He’s soft and nostalgic when speaking to seniors. Overall, people find him very likeable despite not knowing where he actually stands on most key issues. In short, Austin is strong on speech while remaining painfully inactive on action.

There is no better example than Austin’s lack of response to the Stewart Manuel debacle. Manuel is a vocal candidate for Carleton who has posted a series of highly questionable memes and posts to social media that would almost certainly end the campaign of anyone running for a respectable party. No leader would allow such a shady candidate to go on carrying the party banner after a national news outlet caught this most heinous scent.

The Manuel problem reached a low-point when he posted a meme from Ontario comparing the Liberals of that province to the Nazi Party of Adolf Hitler. It was not clear as to whether Manuel even realized the meme was targeted at the Ontario Liberal Party or if he meant it to reflect how he felt about the Liberals of this province. This came after a series of memes attacking Liberals and Progressive Conservatives alike. Ironically, Manuel uses PC Leader Blaine Higgs’ past affiliation with the Confederation of Regions as an attack against Higgs’ leadership; despite the fact that PANB is using much of the same language and policy directions that CoR employed during its heyday. As expected of most PANB candidates, there is an unhealthy amount of posts vilifying the Francophones of New Brunswick or at the very least the government policies that enrich Francophone society.

A problem like Manuel should be an easy fix for Kris Austin especially given how hard Austin strives to be liked. But nearly a week has passed since Global News brought the story online across the country and still no action from the leader’s office. Manuel has apologized for the Nazi meme only and the party has remained stunningly silent. What could have been a brilliant moment for Austin to display his leadership skills has become a blight on his polished image. Certainly, the luster has diminished.

A leader that doesn’t enforce party policy does not have a party. It is as simple as that. The People’s Alliance is a collection of men and women who collectively smear purple on their campaign signs and stick close to Austin in the hopes of gaining some likeability of their own. However, they do not share a singular vision of New Brunswick nor do they guarantee to deliver a unified government if elected. Austin’s inaction at the grassroots level, even with a small group of volunteers and candidates, is a clear sign that he lacks the leadership skills necessary to run a province.

Francophobia New Brunswick

A person can learn a lot about political parties and their supporters by reading through a party newsletter, sitting in on a rally, or reading messages on the party’s message board. Progressive Conservatives worry about government interference and taxes, Liberals worry about equality and healthcare, but it would appear that supporters of the People’s Alliance are very concerned about the French.

The party is crippled with francophobia (or more commonly gallophobia). Party supporters are currently debating the amount of French speaking citizens, allowing French immigrants into the province, playgrounds at French schools, and bilingualism in the healthcare system. While few members have noted there are more pressing issues facing the province, the debate has waged on. It’s not even a debate really; more and more members are just adding reasons to allow the Acadien population to shrink and permit the culture to dissipate.

Wait times for cancer patients has been linked by one PANB supporter to bilingualism in the healthcare system. This is the type of wild association or hysteria that saw the southern United States enact Jim Crow laws. The rampant racism against the Acadien community on the PANB message boards should be a red flag for anybody considering the People’s Alliance as a viable option. One brave member of the party’s Facebook group stated that the discussion sounds like, “ethnic cleansing” and he might not be far off the mark.

Another thread taking place on the PANB Facebook page centers on a letter to the Moncton Times-Transcript from a “concerned citizen” about the francophone press. The letter is a clear example of a privileged majority not understanding a minority counterpart. The writer was deeply upset and even threatened by the francophone bias for francophone politicians and suggests the newspaper should not have superimposed an Acadien flag over the legislature. The writer found this photo of the legislature with a minority banner threatening just as many white Louisianans found black students in their schools threatening. Naturally, a newspaper that caters to a specific subsect of society is going to focus on members of that group in positions of power; it is no different than gays and lesbians wanting to follow Scott Brison and Libby Davies in the federal parliament.

Of course this unjustified fear of our francophone neighbours is not new to the People’s Alliance. Kris Austin and his compatriots whipped up a small level of support for his anti-French statements during the campaign. Austin promised to cut government waste; that is French correspondence and French civil servants among other things.

Saint John East candidate Arthur Watson has yet to state his position on the matter.

Gagetown-Petitcodiac

Four Progressive Conservative ridings and one swing riding squeezed into a single seat. Gagetown-Petitcodiac is comprised of Petitcodiac, Grand Lake-Gegtown, Oromocto, Sussex-Fundy-St Martins, and Hampton Kings. Four of those ridings saw the PC MLAs defeat second place contenders by more than 2000 votes in 2010. Many of those ridings have never seen an MLA other than a tory in recent memory.

The lucky PC to have the nomination for this new super-riding is Ross Wetmore. He is the incumbent from defunct Grand Lake-Gagetown and member of the Standing Committee on Crown Corporations and the Standing Committee of Legislative Officers. Wetmore is an accomlished buisnessman who owns grocers, wholesalers, a marina, and restaurants. If Wetmore doesn’t win this riding by a landslide, it’ll be an embarassment to him and the party.

Barak Stevens is also a successful buisnessman of more than 35 years. He is running under the red banner of the Liberal Party. Stevens is a director of the Mill Cove Nursing Home and a member of the New Brunswick Tappers and Fur Harvesters Association. Based on polling and the results from the five defunct ridings that make up Gagetown-Petitcodiac; Liberal Stevens has the best chance of overcoming the Tory stronghold, but it’s unlikely.

The NDP come to Gagetown-Petitcodiac with self-described activist Anthony Crandall; an employee of the NDP and former Tim Horton’s barrista. Crandall runs an even more difficult gauntlet than Stevens; in four of the five ridings, the NDP came in third place repeatedly, election after election. In Grand Lake-Gagetown, the NDP came in fourth place (2010) to People’s Alliance candidate Kris Austin.

The Greens enter Fred Harrison, renowned Canadian artist. Harrison came to New Brunswick in 2006 when the town of Sussex commissioned him to paint two murals. Harrison loved it so much that he decided to stay in New Brunswick.

Fredericton-Grand Lake

It’s a brand new riding that reaches across part of Fredericton, Noonan, Barker’s Point, Marysville, Maugerville, and of course Grand Lake. This new district is the result of a merger between two ridings which both had incumbent PC MLAs; Pam Lynch and Ross Wetmore. Pam Lynch is the PC who will run for re-election in the newly minted riding. Lynch defeated Kelly Lamrock in 2010 to attain her seat.

Though Lynch has never been given a cabinet position, she is on several committees including the Standing Committee on Law Amendments. She was, prior to politics, the owner and operator of her own legal services office. Despite her success before getting into politics and the efforts she has made on the committees she is involved with, Pam Lynch has been criticized by citizens on both the left and right of the political spectrum. The Campaign Life Coalition for example, gives Lynch a yellow light for her indifference on abortion. The CLC decides whether or not its members may support a candidate based on their stance on the hot button issue; Lynch hasn’t taken a stance (even during the closing of the Morgentaler Clinic in Fredericton).

Sheri Shannon, of the NB Liberal Party, is a former Executive Assistant to former Premier Shawn Graham. Despite having such a high profile job on her resume, the name association might actually hinder more than help her.

The New Democrats’ Bronwen Mosher is an exciting twist to the race. She’s incredibly intelligent, friendly, and involved. She has been tracking the billions of dollars in debt that New Brunswick has racked up under consecutive Liberal and PC governments. She has a major focus on debt reduction, which New Brunswick has never needed more than it does right now. She also produced a film on multiculturalism in Fredericton by focusing on the local Patel family and how their small buisness (in samosas) has forever changed the Fredericton Farmers’ Market. Should Mosher not win this year, she’s one to watch.

Dan Weston tries to get the seat for the Green Party. Dan of course is a major player in the Fredericton Anti-Poverty Organization and has been heralded for his contributions to raising awareness and ending poverty in the capital region. As a founding member, Weston has fought for years in changing the way homeless people are treated and has been interviewed a great many times about panhandlers, soup kitchens, and fresh ideas to help the hopeless.

At the far end of the spectrum enters Kris Austin. A former pastor who turned from spiritual endeavors to economic ones, Austin is a buisness owner and Deputy Mayor in Minto. He is also the leader of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick. Though the party has a few left-of-centre policies, Austin leads the far-right party towards the brink of Tea Party-Conservatism. Given that this riding has so solid a right-wing base, Austin may have a chance to garner more than the 100-400 votes his party won on average last election year.

Saint John East

Once upon a time, a long time ago, unions in the city of Saint John were powerful and the New Democrats could push the Progressive Conservatives back to third place. In 2003 for example, Ralph Thomas (NDP) came in second place in the now defunct East riding of Saint John Champlain. Thomas managed to collect 29% of the popular vote. The redistribution hurt the NDP, but in 2010, Sandy Harding (NDP) won a 23% in Saint John East. But another redrawing of the electoral map in 2013 altered the riding again, forfeiting the Northern half to Portland-Simonds but absorbing a chunk of now defunct Saint John Fundy. The latest redraw should make it impossible for a third party to ever again play a major role; it’s strictly Liberal v. PC in Saint John East now. But that isn’t stopping the parties from trying!

Let’s begin with the long shots. The People’s Alliance offers up Jason Inness. Inness is a founding member of the PANB and a key policy advisor to party leader Kris Austin. Of the 49 ridings, PANB has thus far only placed 18 challengers on the board. Does Inness feel Saint John East is his best chance? He has worked on many campaigns as a disciple of Bernard Lord when he was a PC supporter. With the concentratioin of PC voters in the redraw, it is plausible that Inness is trying to steal the far-right PC vote away from the PC incumbent.

Sharon Murphy of the Green Party has a history of social justice. She is the founder of Peace-NB, an organization for the ethical treatment of senior citizens. She is a past director for other groups including the Conservation Council and Canadian Unitarians for Social Justice. But she has a difficult fight ahead of her. In 2010 the Greens only won 309 ballots in Saint John East.

Trying to relight the old Saint John East fire for the NDP is Phil Comeau. A distinguished paramedic who can say that he has won a Governor General’s award for Exemplary Service. He is on the Paramedics Association board of directors and was one of the people who campaigned for Advanced Care Paramedics to practice in the province. Naturally, Comeau is interested in New Brunswick’s healthcare system and how it must be improved to meet the province’s needs.

The main event. The center ring. Liberal Gary Keating takes on PC incumbent Glen Savoie. Keating has the privilege of being a well-loved high school principal who has educated early every East sider for the past 28 years. The sheer number of voters to have come under Keating’s tutelage is innumerable. Savoie is counting on his buisness contacts and the aging population of the lower East side to overcome the principal’s student nation.

Savoie is secretary to the Minister on Economic Development and is responsible for business development. As such, he is positioned to benefit from deep pockets from grateful entrepreneurs. So we have it, the classic battle of money versus people. Will the warchest of the PC defeat the people campaign of Gary Keating?

The debate is back on!

It was never really off, but the current sitting premier was going to dismiss the chance to partake. Last week, Premier Alward stormed out of the CBC planning session when it was announced that both David Coon (leader of the NB Green Party) and Kris Austin (leader of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick Party) were invited to add their respective voices during the televised leaders’ debate.

PC president Jason Stephen said that Alward is now “looking forward to a fair and fulsome debate”.

Liberal leader Brian Gallant was an early champion for Coon’s inclusion. Twice has Gallant voiced support for the leader of the fringe party to be included in the campaign. When Gallant (alongside Federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau) uploaded a video for the ALS “ice bucket challenge”, he challenged Coon to be the next to take the cold shower for charity.

Austin of the PANB said that Alwatd’s earlier actions were “childish” and that Alward wasn’t able to argue with the PANB’s “common sense”.

The People’s Platform

For better or for worse; here is the Peoples Alliance Platform. It’s very detailed. It’s well articulated. But with the PANB promise to not hold any member to a vote does any of it matter? The one constant since the previous election has been the guarantee that if elected, the PANB would not use a party whip nor would they force any member of their party to vote in favour of party policy over the desires of the member’s electorate. So, in reality, either this platform is totally meaningless or Kris Austin was lying about “free voting and democracy”. I for one actually like knowing that if I vote for a member of a party, I’ll get the party platform or policy. Isn’t that the point of party politics?

Well, as I said, highly detailed. This platform is 35 pages in length. I’ll highlight the key points for you as well as leave a link directly to the platform.

Click to access 2014-PANB-Platform.pdf

1. Audit all corporate subsidy programs

2. Eliminate small business tax

3. Merge some crown corporations (Efficiency NB and NB Power, etc)

4. Support the Energy East Pipeline

5. Privatize the retail side of NB Liquor

6. Change vehicle registration to a two year program rather than an annual program

7. Create a non-partisan Education Policy Review Program

8. Allow teachers to teach as they see fit. End standardized teaching formats

9. End the practice of social passing. If students need to be held back, they will be held back

10. Bring more healthcare and mental healthcare into the schools

11. Freeze university tuition while having government subsidize rising tuition costs

I have to stop for a moment. As we read through this platform I am quickly realizing just how far right wing this party is. The PANB really does make David Alward’s Conservatives look progressive. If you read the section on post secondary education you’ll see that the government would work with the universities to make it more difficult for students who “aren’t ready” for university to get enrolled. They also want to force the universities to work “closer together” under the watchful eye of government.

Language freedom is a term that gets thrown around a lot in this platform. The PANB would end quotas on government hiring of French speaking New Brunswickers, allow business to decide whether of not to use French (a right that private business already owns- so why express it so ardently?), review the usefullness of French immersion in public schools, require fewer law enforcement officers to be fluent French… Is this “language freedom” or an attack on the French language?

12. Create a property owner’s bill of rights

13. Benefit from shale gas production

14. Expand potash production

15. Enact recall legislation for the public to recall an MLA

16. Reduce the size of government

17. Reduce MLA pensions and salaries

18. Be more transparent on MLA attendance and spending

There is a detailed explanation for each point as well as a cost projection. Though some points sound good, many feel overreaching and overbearing. Selling off portions of crown corporations while exercising more control over other private industries (farming and post sedonary education) does not make much sense. Other points seem purposely deceitful or midleading. The ability to recall an MLA or launch a referendum may seem favourable to the naive politico, but the fine print to those points indicate a huge portion of the province would have to be in favour (good luck getting both urban and rural New Brunswick to agree to finite detail and opinion). Those seem like promises to dangle in front of a frustrated and disenfranchised populace while bringing them no closer to actually having the ability to do so.

Read the platform for yourself. Consider each point carefully. Then remind yourself that this party has less than 1% support province-wide.

More platforms to come.

Moncton Southwest

This new district could go red or blue, but is leaning blue currently. It’s made up of pieces of four former Moncton and Petitcodiac ridings. All five parties are represented in this district, but the numbers are not kind for the orange, green, nor purple banners.

I can not help but find it strange to find a People’s Alliance candidate running for this seat after reading on the PAND facebook page about the waste of money that bilingualism has been to the province (a viewpoint not at all shared by the writers of this blog). Add to that, the fact that CBC Radio Canada found that PANB leader Kris Austin is not fluent enough in the French language to debate en Francis. Regardless, Lucy Goguen believes in the People’s Alliance and Kris Austin to make a play for it.

For the Progressive Conservatives is incumbent Petitcodiac MLA Sherry Wilson. A business owner, former deputy mayor, former RCMP Victims Services volunteer, and volunteer for D.A.R.E. She hasn’t been given a cabinet post since being elected in 2010, but is a promising candidate.

Another promising candidate is the New Democrat’s Charles Doucet. Like Wilson, Doucet has political experience in Moncton’s City Hall where he serves on the mayor’s advisory committee for downtown revitalization and development. He has degrees from both Universite de Moncton and Dalhousie University. Doucet also has backgrounds in working for both the environment and autism.

Tyson Milner for the Liberals has more than twenty years experience as a business owner in Moncton.

The Greens’ Mathieu LaPlant received a Bachelor of Arts degree from the Universite de Moncton in 1999; majoring in journalism and public relations. He describes himself as a person who is deeply concerned with environmentalism and social justice.

Lucy Goguen actually has one of the most detailed personal platforms of any People’s Alliance candidate. She is a nurse at the Moncton City Hospital and wants to bring wage parity into effect. Goguen wants to make the MLA expenses more accountable with online reporting. Checks and balances are a top priority for Goguen. Interestingly, as a nurse, Goguen does not want to prevent fracking in the province; though she (and the PANB as well) want to bring in more regulations and safety standards than those of the PCs. Germany is in the process of banning fracking for both environment and health concerns.