The Liberals currently hold Miramichi Bay-Neguac and typically win the riding with ballots to spare. MLA Lisa Harris won the seat back from the Progressive Conservatives in 2014 by more than 700 votes; a significant victory for such a small populace. Harris, the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care is a key member of the Gallant cabinet given the median age of New Brunswickers. Were Harris to lose her seat next month it would be a devastating upset to the Liberal Party.
Challenging Harris on behalf of the Progressive Conservatives is Debi Tozer. Tozer works for a small business and has no political experience or history. Her key issues have not been stated. It is likely that she is simply a lame duck candidate for her party. Especially given the knowledge that the People’s Alliance are working hard at chipping into the hard-right vote in the region; directly taking away from PC support. Even the loss of a hundred PC votes would be a crippling blow to the Tozer campaign.
The People’s Alliance almost had a star candidate in Terry Collette. Collette certainly has gone out of his way to secure the fringe alt-right vote. Holding a certificate in holistic medicine, Collette has posted several unfounded conspiracy theories on social media including: ISIS is controlled by Israel, life on Mars, and the standard September 11th theories espoused by the radical right. PC Leader Blain Higgs has demanded PANB explain their stance on these issues, which forced Kris Austin to distance himself from Collette.
The Greens offer James Denny of the Natoaganeg First Nation. Denny has some political experience within Natoaganeg, however this is his first foray into provincial politics. The Natoaganeg Nation has a significant population for the region and could double or even triple the Green vote from 2014 if Denny is able to galvanize his electorate. This would still not be enough to take the seat away from Harris, but would be a dramatic step for the Green Party.
The New Democrat in the contest is truck driver Willie Robichaud. Robichaud, like his counterpart in the Miramichi riding, has stated the need for a $15 minimum wage in New Brunswick. In 2014, the NDP came in third and as such it will be an uphill battle for Robichaud. However, this is near the area that overwhelming sent Yvon Godin to Ottawa. If Robichaud is able to tap into Godin’s popularity and influence, he may enjoy a bump in support.
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