Drop The Writ

The 2018 provincial election is now officially underway. At the writ drop, only one party has secured an official candidate in each riding; the Liberal Party. The Progressive Conservatives have a candidate in all but two ridings; Restigouche West and Kent North. The Greens, New Democrats, and People’s Alliance seem to be having some trouble fielding prospects.

According to the polls, the Liberal Party of New Brunswick is in a comfortable lead with Blaine Higg’s Progressive Conservatives in a distant second. One cause for the weakened PC Party, as the polls suggest, is the rise of the populist People’s Alliance who have climbed to 6.6 percent. Kris Austin has chipped away at the PC’s hold on the right wing with his rhetoric on divisive issues such as duality, bilingualism, and taxation.

According to the CBC, the Green Party has successfully raised more funds than the New Democrats and People’s alliance for the two years leading into the election. Their poll numbers are on par with the NDP, and just ahead of the PANB. Whether or not Green Party leader David Coon is able to translate that into an increase in seats is yet unseen. But it is safe to say that the Greens are the third party to watch, ahead of the NDP and PANB.

The Liberals may have every reason to feel secure going into this election. Even before the surprise surplus announcement, the Liberals hold a 10 to 20 point lead depending on which pollster you follow. Add to that, Higgs’ inability to rile up his base and we enter an election where celebrative Liberals are racing to the polls and unenthused Tories are staying home. Could this be the end of New Brunswick’s single term premiers?

Ridings to watch include Fredericton West-Hanwell (where former NDP leader Dominic Cardy is now running for the PCs), Fredericton South (where incumbent David Coon hopes to retain his seat after the upset in 2014), the hotly contested Saint John Harbour where four parties are all running star candidates, and Carleton-Victoria which was a very narrow race in 2014.

Already the race has drama. Radio-Canada has decided to cancel the French Leaders’ Debate as Blaine Higgs is unable to debate in French. Radio-Canada gave Higgs the opportunity to sub in a French speaking candidate but Brian Gallant stated he would only debate with Higgs. Higgs has attacked Kris Austin on his lack of leadership in dealing with PANB candidates who have been caught sharing and posting racist, homophobic, and misogynist posts on social media.

Fighting for Fredericton South

It’s a new riding in the Capital Region. Even when this MLA is at the office, he or she will only need to look out their window to see their constituents. There are already five candidates in the running for this highly desirable riding; Craig Leonard for the PC, Roy Wiggins for the Liberals, former Liberal Kelly Lamrock for the NDP, Green Leader David Coon, and Independent Courtney Mills. The People’s Alliance have until September 2nd to nominate a candidate.

Craig Leonard is an incumbent for the soon to be defunct riding of Fredericton-Lincoln, and current Minister of Energy. Leonard assumed the ministership during a controversial period for the PC party when the former Minister of Energy, Margaret-Ann Blaney resigned just two years after the election to accept a position as CEO of Efficiency New Brunswick. This blatant display of patronage caused quite a stir for Premier Alward; responsible for the appointment of Blaney to the crown corporation. However, Blaney was causing some friction already as her riding executive had accepted donations from highway contractors with the insinuation of a favour being returned.

Roy Wiggins is a former Deputy Sheriff and small business owner who is eager to work with small business both in his riding and across the province should he win on September 22nd. Wiggins is proud of his city of Fredericton; having attended Fredericton High and St. Thomas University. He is currently a mortgage broker with Premiere Mortgage Centre.

One of the names most closely associated with the demise of Shawn Graham’s Liberal government is undoubtedly Kelly Lamrock. Lamrock upset nearly everyone in the province with his decision to eliminate early French immersion in the New Brunswick school system- despite strong opposition from parents, educators, and eductaion experts from across the country. Lamrock refused to concede. There was also a city-wide revolt in Saint John when Lamrock attempted to turn the University of New Brunswick (Saint John campus) into a polytechnic. Professors, students, and alumni marched in solidarity to oppose the plan. Graham then commited a cabinet shuffle and removed Lamrock from the Education Portfolio. How Lamrock became involved with the New Democrats is unclear.

David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Greens, is the best chance the party has for winning even one seat in the legislature. Green policies are becoming increasingly popular over the last few decades but most mainstream parties have either missed the boat or offered too little to gain in this sector of the electorate. The Green party has made a name for itself by advancing ideas of how to better improve the environment while using these policies to potentially advance local economies (specifically in farming communities). But the Green Party is also burdened by the accusation that their sharp focus on the environment has narrowed their policies to exclude other key items such as industry, education, and healthcare. Coon is unquestionably one of the most experienced, intelligent, and well-meaning candidates in the entire province- but he lacks charisma, personality, and confidence. It will be interesting to see if the election will be enough of a shot in the arm to give Coon the personality he needs to win a seat.