Election 2014 Update

With only days left to the election, the final push is on. CTV is hosting a leaders’ debate but has decided to leave Coon and Austin out. One Change has hosted some riding debates. Charges against Liberal Andrew Harvey have been dropped. Liberals turn their attacks towards the third place New Democrats. Sign vandalism seems to be higher this year than usual. Greens lay out a new soft drink tax. Seat projections have been provided by the folks over at http://www.threehundredeight.com.

The Green Party has decided to protest the CTV debate (hosted at St Thomas University). In what they are calling “Stand Up to CTV”, the Greens plan to confront what they believe is corporate Canada holding democracy hostage. The event, which takes place September the 18th at 5:30 has 2,300 invites sent out to party faithful and political activists but less than 100 confirmed attendees. Coming off the Elizabeth May bump, we’ll soon discover exactly how many Greens are charged about the election.

Portland-Simonds had a modest (but better than expected) turnout for a One Change riding debate which saw Trevor Holder face his political adversaries. The contenders and incumbent MLA had a much less barbed debate than that of the leaders during the televised CBC debate. Soft spoken, warm, and at times detached; the debate was informative and felt more like a town hall meeting rather than a debate.

Andrew Harvey was being charged for defrauding the government in an incident that took place three years ago. The Crown prosecutor made the decision to drop the charges only recently, saying that the charges didn’t meet the threshold to prosecute. The party still maintains that the timing of the charges is suspect and even went so far as to demand an apology from Premier David Alward for comments he made in regards to the incident.

Brian Gallant has attacked Dominic Cardy and the New Democrats’ platform. Cardy has been extremely critical of Gallant’s costly platform and the $900 million investment in infrastructure; but now Gallant has countered by pointing out the 24 key points in the New Democrat platform which have not even been costed. Gallant has also been hostile on the NDP’s practice of parachuting candidates into ridings where they have no place being. Cardy has taken this in stride, partly because it has gained him and his party some more media attention but also because he feels it is a sign that there might be trouble in Liberal paradise.

Parties and citizens alike have noticed a rise in sign vandalism this year. Large streetside signs have been knocked down, destroyed, and beheaded. Smaller signs have gone missing from sidewalks and lawns. And in some ridings there have been reports of “green vandals” which saw Tory, Grit, and NDP signs pelted with green paint.

Also in Green news, Coon has announced a tax on snack food and sweetened beverages such as pop. The tax is said to have dual benefits: helping youth cut back on unhealthy eating habits as well as creating a new revenue for healthcare in the province.

Threehundredeight.com has tabulated the results of recent polls and combined the results to project plausible election results. Given the limited seats in the New Brunswick Legislature, the projection is rather wide but worth consideration. The results give the Greens and People’s Alliance no chance of attaining even a single seat but speculate the New Democrats could go as high as 5 seats in the best case scenario.

Carleton-Victoria

This race is a little crowded. This race is also a little drama-filled and has stolen some attention from the overall election. Though it is comprised of two Tory ridings, there is no incumbent running for re-election. The Liberal candidadte is no longer a Liberal as he was suspended from the party over allegations of fraud. There are two independents running. There is also a Green and New democrat just trying to be heard.

The district is made up of portions of both Carleton (PC stronghold) and Victoria-Tobique (Liberal from 1987-2010). PC incumbents Dale Graham and Wes McLean are, for the moment, leaving public life. This left the PC nomination open for Dr. Colin Lockhart, who has practiced medicine in three provinces as well as providing medical care relief in Haiti. He would be the likely frontrunner were it not for the low approval rating of the current PC Alward Government, especially in the hardhit rural regions.

The would-be prime opponent is Liberal-not-Liberal Andrew Harvey. Despite being suspended temporarily from Liberal caucus, he is still featured on the Liberal campaign site and still boasts Liberal signs in and around his riding. When he isn’t running for office, he is an industrious buisnessperson who employs many in his community. He and other members of his family are currently being charged for defrauding the government of a considerable sum of money. Unfortunately, the court hearings will not be held until after the election. Should Harvey win the riding, and then be found innocent, Brian Gallant will allow Harvey to return to Liberal caucus. Harvey has alleged that the timing of these charges, laid by the RCMP, are bogus and conveniently timed to interfere with the election. Harvey does have until September 20th to formally withdraw from the election.

Joe Gee of the NDP is a jack of all trades. He has been a teacher, a farmer, a welder, a community support worker, and more. He also undertook the task of researching and bringing to life the history of the Underground Railroad; which saw Black Americans come to Canada via New Brunswick to escape slavery. Gee is an interesting and ardent democrat who may actually have become the prime opponent to continued PC rule of teh region in the wake of Harvey’s court battle.

Garth Farquhar is the owner of Tobique Log Homes. For more than thirty years, he has built homes for a living.

Not happy with any of the parties, Carleton-Victoria has two options to vote independent; Carter Edgar and Terry Ritchie.

!FRAUD!

Or more appropiately, two allegations of fraud have been charged against Carleton-Victoria candidate Andrew Harvey, his brother, and their father, the former Liberal MLA B. Fred Harvey. The RCMP allege that the family has defrauded the New Brunswick government of more than $5000. This turn of events has turned the Liberal campaign on its head.

Liberal leader Brian Gallant has said of the events that he was disappointed Harvey didn’t disclose this to him or the Liberal team. Gallant made the decision to temporarily suspend Harvey from the Liberal caucus until after the court hearing in hopes that Harvey will be found innocent. If he is not, then Harvey will be suspended indefinitely.

The Progressive Party wasted no time in attacking the Liberals and their leader while avoiding any direct chastizing of the Harvey family. David Alward has said to the CBC that Gallant’s decision will reflect his leadership, but chose not to condemn Harvey himself. He also said that the vetting process to become a PC candidate is strenuous and includes criminal background checks. PC candidate for Carleton-Victoria, Colin Lockhart said that he knows Harvey and hopes that all of this will pass for him and the family.

Carleton-Victoria is also being contested by NDP candidate Joe Gee, who said that this doesn’t change what the election is about and that  he will continue to push ahead.

More to come on the riding and updates on the status of Harvey’s candidacy.