Trouble for McKenzie

The New Democratic Party of New Brunswick is struggling to stay above water. Leader Jennifer McKenzie was acclaimed leader without opposition but not because there was no opposition to her being leader; but rather because nobody else wanted the job. Former leader Dominic Cardy carved up the party and left deep divisions and high debts.

The election campaign has not begun officially yet, but the other parties are hard at work nominating candidates across the province. Unsurprisingly, the nominations for Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are nearly full. The Green Party and People’s Alliance are also busy putting names to paper. The NDP however is lagging far behind with only 7 out of 49 nominations. The NDP is ahead of only Keep It Simple Solutions in terms of nominations.

Early polling for the party is not good either. The party polled lower in March than at the time of the previous election which saw them win no seats. They are still polling higher than the Greens, PANB, and KISS which might be their only silver lining. Those polls put the Liberal Party in a distant lead over McKenzie’s fledgling party.

McKenzie’s greatest hope of gaining any seat in the upcoming election was an obvious decision, one which Cardy lacked the foresight to consider. She decided to run in the one riding which actually sent a New Democrat to the legislature in recent years; Saint John Harbour. However, McKenzie’s trump card may be misplaced as Saint John Harbour is set to be one of the most hotly contested races in 2018. The Greens put forward stalwart Wayne Dryer. Also, popular former teacher Barry Ogden announced his intention to seek the nomination of the Progressive Conservative Party. The Liberals won the riding in 2014 by only 71 votes.

With no money, few candidates, and relatively zero news coverage, it would appear to be a very bad year for McKenzie to fight an election. It is crucial that the NDP reach out to potential voters this summer in a blitz of community barbeques and meet and greets. The riding associations need to formulate a plan to balance their books and appeal to favorable candidates before it’s too late. If McKenzie isn’t able to turn some numbers around, it could spell the end of the New Brunswick New Democrats.

Late to the Party

As was the case throughout the general election; People’s Alliance are late to the party. They named their candidate for the Saint John East by-election a few days after everyone else; Arthur Watson. Watson is the owner of Errands R Us, a delivery service in Saint John. He also ran for the seat in Saint John Harbour in the general election, but came in last place with only 115 votes.

The People’s Alliance seem to be suffering from a severe identity problem. Who are they? What is their message? Nearly every candidate had a different vision for New Brunswick. Some party members seem libertarian, while others take on a neo-conservative position, and others are just following orders. During the election, the PANB attacked the French language and offered to end several practices that protect the bilingual status of the province, but they did this while running French candidates. The PANB offered a very detailed and point-specific platform but promised no PANB MLA would be compelled to vote along party lines.

The Progressive Conservatives are not worried about Watson joining the race in Saint John East. They are more confident than ever, in fact. The PC believe that Dominic Cardy joining the race as a strong left wing candidate for the NDP will split the left vote in the riding (which was more than 60% of the vote on Sept 22nd). A strong NDP contender and an angry Liberal electorate might be the magic mix that Savoie needs to take back the riding for the leaderless PC. Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance have such a minute share of the right ring vote that it shouldn’t tip the scales against the PC.

The Fall From Grace

When he swept to power in 2010, David Alward was incredibly popular, winning a majority. Well liked in the community from which he hailed, and respected province-wide; Alward has seemingly fallen from grace with New Brunswickers. His approval rating is among the lowest of premiers across the nation. Once Progressive Conservative strongholds are now leaning left towards the Liberal Party. But what caused this decline?

Unemployment is staggering in New Brunswick. The PC leader who criticized Shawn Graham’s unemployment rate of 8.8% has seen his own rate climb to as high as 10.4% (2013). The Canadian Federation of Independent  Business has said that some of Alward’s policies inhibit small business growth. Small business owners in New Brunswick have critized Alward for favouring big buisness and standing by while watching big business enact sweeping lay offs. The Alward government has put into place laws and regulations which make it difficult, if not impossible for small businesses to compete with big corporate industry and as such prevents job creation and precludes competitive pricing for the consumer.

This year, Alward also made the difficult decision to cut funding to austism programs in the province. Autism rates are higher in New Brunswick than anywhere else in the country and early autism intervention is a crucial program here. Alward has received stark and deafening condemnation for this.

Alward has also upset the gay and lesbian community of the province when he decided to enforce a little-known law which prevented a high school from flying a gay pride flag on the premises. He has also resisted and refused invitations to partake in gay pride parades and events as premier.

The government has also upset unions and the Pension Coalition New Brunswick. Alward gave the go ahead to raise the retirement age of teachers while at the same time restricting their pension benefits. The New Brunswick Nurses Union has also accused Alward of making too many cuts to healthcare. In a statement released February 12th, the NBNU president said that these cuts are affecting nurses and directly affects patient safety and care.

It would appear that the citizens of New Brunswick would agree with the NBNU; complaints of wait times, lack of family doctors, accessibility to health care, and overall dissatisfaction have persisted throughout the Alward administration. Cupe has said that it is rural New Brunswick that has been most targeted by these cuts- Alward’s backyard.

The Canadian Association of University Teachers voiced national concern this year over Alward’s cool attitude towards post-secondary education. Despite the highest NB tax hikes since 1983, the government under Alward’s direction has frozen funding. The CAUT explained that this decision will impair New Brunswick’s ability to improve the provincial economy and encourages youth to seek education in other provinces.

Even the union responsible for highway snow removal has fired discontent at David Alward. Cupe Local 1190 received over 700 complaints this year. Everything from understaffing, overworking, and not having enough salt to properly ensure road safety. When these safety concerns went public, Alward permitted his minister of transportation and infrastructure, Claude Williams, to respond facetiously.

Senior care is another point of contention. One Moncton family is so upset that it has spent more than $7000 on distributing flyers in protest of Alward’s extreme cuts to senior care. The family came under investigation by Elections New Brunswick for their anti-Alward literature, but was later found not guilty of breaking any election law. The flyers notified other New Brunswickers that Alward has changed key rules in the eligibility of those who qualify for government paid care, and that despite being on dialysis and having dementia; the family is still paying a private institution for the matriarch’s medical care. If this isn’t a step towards Americanizing healthcare in New Brunswick!

The causes for Alward’s fall from grace go on like this with a seemingly endless array of complaints, cutbacks, and grievances. Yet, the man continues to run on the slogan, “Say Yes” and maintains the course set during his first term. Will he be able to turn public opinion around in time for a Hail Mary by September 22nd?

The Cowardly Lion

He has experience, a stellar education, a impressive portfolio, and the advantage of office; but David Alward is behaving like the cowardly lion on the yellow brick road to another election. The premier has been involved in more than a few debates on and off the floor of the New Brunswick Legislature but he is refusing to take part in this year’s CBC Leaders’ Debate.

Is it his plummeting approval rating? Is it an excellent attack strategy from the Liberals or New Democrats? No. The Premier refuses to appear because two lesser parties have also been invited. Leaders of the Green Party and People’s Alliance will be joining Brian Gallant and Dominic Cardy when New Brunswick tunes into the exchange of ideologies on September 9th. The Progressive Conservatives demanded that CBC withdraw the invitation to both the Greens and PAND, but when the CBC refused; the PCs left the planning meeting.

The Green Party is taking this as an affirmation of Alward’s fear of being questioned on his weak stance on the environment.  The NDP also believe that this is a sign of Alward’s fear on facing the issues.

It is important too to consider this only a small victory for the PANB and Green parties as they are still uninvited from taking part in the French language leaders’ debate. The reasoning being that the leaders of these parties lack the required fluency in the French language.

Even Prime Minister Stephen Harper who is known for a general reluctance to take part in televised events agreed to debate with Federal Green leader Elizabeth May. Alward’s decision is reminiscent of the American Republican Party and their refusal to take part in debates with leaders from any party other than the Democrats. This creates a political dichotomy and polarizes the electorate. This flies in the face of Canadianism and the parliamentary system of idea exchange, bipartisan co-operation, and civility.

CBC has kept the invitation open to Alward, but urge him to reconsider quickly for they can make the necessary changes.