A Wounded Animal

The New Democrats have the most to lose and the least to gain in this election. They won’t win the West, they are losing their grip on Quebec, and they have already lost their one seat in New Brunswick with little chance of gaining another. There was never any chance of Thomas Mulcair becoming prime minister, but there was a good chance of him holding his title of Leader of the Opposition. But now that his numbers have fallen, Harper’s on the rise, and Justin Trudeau raising more political donations; Mulcair sees himself losing his post.

New Democrats are also feeling the threat of Trudeau’s popularity. The online NDP communities have become downright vitriolic. The Conservative online presence has always been a toxic hotspot for barbs and meaningless quips that doesn’t garner any meaningful political dialogue. But now the NDP network is giving the Big Blue Mudslingers a run for their money. They have even began turning on each other when someone sugguests a slur has gone too far or questions the relevance of a spur in the greater discourse.

Who is the target of the NDP fanclub? Everyone. Nobody is safe, save the Bloc Quebecois who have flown totally under everyone’s radar for months. Elizabeth May and Justin Trudeau have taken the most orange heat; May for suggesting Liberals were easier to work with, and Trudeau for being his father’s son.

Stephen Harper is still the subject of a few hardliners, but has seemingly given the target he wore on his back to Justin. With the focus of opposition pointed anywhere but at the government itself, Harper has managed to push through some very devastating legislation which hurts every Canadian’s civil liberties and grants additional powers to police forces a-la-Orwell’s 1984. The NDP support base also seems more presoccupied with Justin Trudeau’s hair than the fact that Stephen Harper spent $700,000 on court costs to avoid paying veterans their promised income.

True, the NDP is like a battered boxer just before the TKO; swinging wildly in all directions but connecting with nothing. Let’s hope for the sake of democracy that Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is able to come back with a strong finish in the next round before the Tories take away anymore of the Canadian identity in their move towards a police state.

Tories Take the Lead

According to the newest seat projections, Stephen Harper’s Tories are poised to win the most seats in the upcoming federal election. According to threehundredeight.com, the Conservatives could win an estimated 136 seats over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals (with an estimated 126). Threehundredeight.com weighs the polling results of all the major pollsters, taking other considerations into account and is often very accurate. The projection puts the blue team in the lead only in terms of seat count but maintains the Liberals still hold the popular vote; 33.7% to the tories’ 32.4%. Thomas Mulcair and the New Democrats may win 72 seats, Elizabeth May and the Greens 2, Bloq Quebecois 2.

How is the battle shaping up in our neck of the woods? The Liberals are projected to take 23 seats in the Atlantic region. On our coast, Harper is only polling high enough to take 6 seats.

The Toronto Star suspects New Brunswick may give the Liberals a strong showing; citing the large increase in paid Liberal memberships from the province, as well as the continued shut out of the NDP. But again, the Tory surge seems to be on the rise and New Brunswick houses a few Conservative strongholds.

Trudeau may not have the easy fight that was projected just a month ago. However, Harper is still in minority territory and overall the Left will have a majority of seats- should they ever stop attacking one another and decide to work together.

The Orange Exit

Under the leadership of Thomas Mulcair, eight New Democrat MPs have been lost. National support for the party is in decline. According to polls conducted by Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid Global, and Corporate Research Associates; support for the NDP in New Brunswick is under 20%. With Yvon Godin stepping down from re-election, it is very likely that New Brunswick will see the only glimmer of orange within its border fade out.

To put that statistic into perspective; the NDP was at 29.8% in NB in 2011 under Jack Layton. Currently, the Liberals are projected at somewhere between 44 and 49% in NB. The Conservatives are at 29% to 32% here at home. Add to that the 2014 shut out of NDP in the provincial election and you may feel safe to bet against Mulcair gaining or even maintaining electoral support in New Brunswick.

The party has also been slow to nominate its contenders. Is it fielding the best possible candidates or having trouble scraping a few up?

The Next Big One

As New Brunswick recovers from a very surprising election and the aftermath of serious problems with the vote count, eyes across the province are already shifting to the next big election. The federal election of 2015 is looming on the horizon and parties are busy collecting candidates to contest the Harper Government (formerly known as the Government of Canada). Currently, the Tories hold 8 of the ten ridings in our province.

The only two New Brunswick ridings not held by Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are Acadie-Bathurst (held by Yvon Godin of the New Democrats) and Beausejour (represented by Dominic LeBlanc of the Liberal Party). However, it is important to note that the left wing vote in New Brunswick actually far outweighed the right. But as a result of the vote split between the Liberal’s and Jack Layton’s NDP caused otherwise left ridings to turn blue. Madawaska-Restigouche for example cast more than 20,000 ballots for the left as opposed to the 14,541 for Conservative Bernard Valcourt. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe gave 31,316 votes to the left but are instead represented by Robert Goguen with his 17,408 votes. The consolidated right vote has a clear advantage in New Brunswick (as it does across the country) whereas the left is split over three parties.

But there are a few new things to consider this time around. Prime Minister Harper’s personal popularity is in decline; he has had nine years of scandals, a flailing economy, run ins with the Supreme Court for trying to pass unconstitutional laws, poorly received legislation, and a plummeting international reputation for the country. Also, the NDP are no longer helmed by popular Layton and instead offer Thomas Mulcair who lacks the personality and promise of Jack Layton. The Liberals are pinning their hopes on fresh faced leader Justin Trudeau; the most popular of the three leaders.

Gaging public opinion in New Brunswick can be difficult as most federall polling firms group lump all of Atlantic Canada into one group. Keeping that in mind, the latest polls indicate that Atlantic Canada is overwhelmingly in favour of the Liberal Party of Canada (52.8%) with the Conservative Party of Canada in a distant second (21.9%), the NDP are neck and neck with the CPC at 21.1%, and the Green Party of Canada trailing far behind at 3.8%. This polling data was released today (Sept 29th).

Watching the candidates emerge will be an interesting event. With only 8 ridings to contend; the Liberals, New Democrats, and Greens should have people of all walks clamouring for nomination. This is especially true after the provincial election we just had which saw more than a few star candidates fall short of their goal. They may still be able to ride the momentum through nomination events over the next few months.