As New Brunswick recovers from a very surprising election and the aftermath of serious problems with the vote count, eyes across the province are already shifting to the next big election. The federal election of 2015 is looming on the horizon and parties are busy collecting candidates to contest the Harper Government (formerly known as the Government of Canada). Currently, the Tories hold 8 of the ten ridings in our province.
The only two New Brunswick ridings not held by Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are Acadie-Bathurst (held by Yvon Godin of the New Democrats) and Beausejour (represented by Dominic LeBlanc of the Liberal Party). However, it is important to note that the left wing vote in New Brunswick actually far outweighed the right. But as a result of the vote split between the Liberal’s and Jack Layton’s NDP caused otherwise left ridings to turn blue. Madawaska-Restigouche for example cast more than 20,000 ballots for the left as opposed to the 14,541 for Conservative Bernard Valcourt. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe gave 31,316 votes to the left but are instead represented by Robert Goguen with his 17,408 votes. The consolidated right vote has a clear advantage in New Brunswick (as it does across the country) whereas the left is split over three parties.
But there are a few new things to consider this time around. Prime Minister Harper’s personal popularity is in decline; he has had nine years of scandals, a flailing economy, run ins with the Supreme Court for trying to pass unconstitutional laws, poorly received legislation, and a plummeting international reputation for the country. Also, the NDP are no longer helmed by popular Layton and instead offer Thomas Mulcair who lacks the personality and promise of Jack Layton. The Liberals are pinning their hopes on fresh faced leader Justin Trudeau; the most popular of the three leaders.
Gaging public opinion in New Brunswick can be difficult as most federall polling firms group lump all of Atlantic Canada into one group. Keeping that in mind, the latest polls indicate that Atlantic Canada is overwhelmingly in favour of the Liberal Party of Canada (52.8%) with the Conservative Party of Canada in a distant second (21.9%), the NDP are neck and neck with the CPC at 21.1%, and the Green Party of Canada trailing far behind at 3.8%. This polling data was released today (Sept 29th).
Watching the candidates emerge will be an interesting event. With only 8 ridings to contend; the Liberals, New Democrats, and Greens should have people of all walks clamouring for nomination. This is especially true after the provincial election we just had which saw more than a few star candidates fall short of their goal. They may still be able to ride the momentum through nomination events over the next few months.
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