Saint John East

Once upon a time, a long time ago, unions in the city of Saint John were powerful and the New Democrats could push the Progressive Conservatives back to third place. In 2003 for example, Ralph Thomas (NDP) came in second place in the now defunct East riding of Saint John Champlain. Thomas managed to collect 29% of the popular vote. The redistribution hurt the NDP, but in 2010, Sandy Harding (NDP) won a 23% in Saint John East. But another redrawing of the electoral map in 2013 altered the riding again, forfeiting the Northern half to Portland-Simonds but absorbing a chunk of now defunct Saint John Fundy. The latest redraw should make it impossible for a third party to ever again play a major role; it’s strictly Liberal v. PC in Saint John East now. But that isn’t stopping the parties from trying!

Let’s begin with the long shots. The People’s Alliance offers up Jason Inness. Inness is a founding member of the PANB and a key policy advisor to party leader Kris Austin. Of the 49 ridings, PANB has thus far only placed 18 challengers on the board. Does Inness feel Saint John East is his best chance? He has worked on many campaigns as a disciple of Bernard Lord when he was a PC supporter. With the concentratioin of PC voters in the redraw, it is plausible that Inness is trying to steal the far-right PC vote away from the PC incumbent.

Sharon Murphy of the Green Party has a history of social justice. She is the founder of Peace-NB, an organization for the ethical treatment of senior citizens. She is a past director for other groups including the Conservation Council and Canadian Unitarians for Social Justice. But she has a difficult fight ahead of her. In 2010 the Greens only won 309 ballots in Saint John East.

Trying to relight the old Saint John East fire for the NDP is Phil Comeau. A distinguished paramedic who can say that he has won a Governor General’s award for Exemplary Service. He is on the Paramedics Association board of directors and was one of the people who campaigned for Advanced Care Paramedics to practice in the province. Naturally, Comeau is interested in New Brunswick’s healthcare system and how it must be improved to meet the province’s needs.

The main event. The center ring. Liberal Gary Keating takes on PC incumbent Glen Savoie. Keating has the privilege of being a well-loved high school principal who has educated early every East sider for the past 28 years. The sheer number of voters to have come under Keating’s tutelage is innumerable. Savoie is counting on his buisness contacts and the aging population of the lower East side to overcome the principal’s student nation.

Savoie is secretary to the Minister on Economic Development and is responsible for business development. As such, he is positioned to benefit from deep pockets from grateful entrepreneurs. So we have it, the classic battle of money versus people. Will the warchest of the PC defeat the people campaign of Gary Keating?

Portland-Simonds

In a bizarre riding that emcompasses Saint John’s North End, Millidgeville, and part of the East Side; Portland-Simonds is a smorgasbord of different aspects of the electorate. The riding has students, retirees, union workers, doctors, nurses, the impoverished, the working poor, the wealthy, and the middle class, French, and English. There are four candidates in the running as of this week.

The first is Trevor Holder, Progressive Conservative incumbent. Holder, though well liked in conservative circles and carrying an extensive political portfolio, has served as a lackluster minister. His first term in the legislature was as a backbencher who brought very little forth and maintained the party line. In his second term he was made Minister of Environment and Local Government; his stance of both the environment and local governance was laughable. Universally mocked, the department was broken up and Holder was left with only the responsibility of environment. At this time in Holder’s career, the PC government of Bernard Lord was defeated by the Liberal party. But when David Alward came to power in 2010, Holder was boosted back up to a minister as Minister of Wellness, Culture, and Sport. Though Holder hasn’t been as mocked in this position, a report came out yesterday (Aug 30th) from the World Health Organization and Health Canada which states New Brunswick as the most obese province in Canada and that obesity has reached devastating levels (63% of NB adults are obese and 36% of NB children are obese). So it is safe to say that Holder has failed in this position as well.

The second person to throw their name into the hat was Liberal Michael Butler. Butler is heavily involved in the field of education. He has been a teacher, school administrator, district supervisor, and superintendent. Butler is likely to sweep the education vote in the riding and is bolstered by Gallant’s high approval ratings. His intentions are to invest more in education and improve New Brunswick’s rather embarassing status as a “functioning illiterate state”. He has seen the benefits of a stronger education system and wants to implement that across the province. Hoping that a better educated populace could better benefit local business and drive the economy forward.

Thirdly, Sheila Croteau for the NB Greens. It would be impossible to find anything negative to say about Croteau. Croteau is a well respected member of her community, a life long volunteer of a dozen causes, and an Off-reserve Chief who promotes education. Friendly, courteous, kind, and empathetic; Croteau’s only fault is that she is in a riding that her party has little chance of breaking. The Greens had little chance of breaking ground here before it became Portland-Simonds; but now with so much of the East Side (and employees of Irving Oil Ltd.) there is even significantly less chance of doing well in the riding.

Finally, the New Democrats only recently nominated a candidate for the riding. The candidate, Tony Sekulich was parachuted in from Fredericton. He serves as the NBNDP’s director of communications. He is a writer and screen writer. A graduate of St. Thomas University, currently with a project in development with CTV. In my experience (I’ve met all the candidates a number of times), Tony is about the least personable and most unlikeable of the four. Although an interesting candidate, I think Sekulich will have a difficult time changing minds and connecting with the people of Portland-Simonds.

What’s happening in Rothesay

It is one of the wealthiest ridings in the province. It has been Progressive Conservative since Margaret-Ann Blaney won the riding in 1999. However, there is a turning of the political tide in Rothesay.

Since the Blaney patronage fiasco, the PCs have been slipping in popularity. When Blaney exited her seat shortly after the 2010 election to accept a post handed to her by buddy David Alward, a by-election was called. In a surprise move by the New Democrats; leader Dominic Cardy announced his candidacy in the once firmly right-of-centre riding. The riding was also challenged by a Green, Liberal, and an independent.

No one expected to see such a close threeway race in Rothesay. The riding that once churned out 2800-3000+ votes for the party, barely broke 1600 in that by-election. The Liberal candidate came short by only 300 votes and even the NDP (who were never successful in Rothesay) were only 550 votes behind the PC.

Now that the PC approval ratings have been freefall across the province, and considering Hugh Flemmings III’s less than stellar showing in 2012; many are speculating a change of the guard in Rothesay. Former Saint John MP Paul Zed posted to his Instagram a photo of Liberal candidate Stephanie Tomilson with the caption, “Watch for the riding to change on election night. Positive change coming.”

Interestingly, the Liberal candidate from the 2012 by-election, John Wilcox will be this year’s NDP candidate.